The leader of “National front” marine Le Pen remains an “unelected”, so the main intrigue of the presidential elections in France will be the fight for second place between Neapolitan Fillon and geocentrists with Macron
Perhaps the main distinguishing feature raged in France, the presidential race is its unpredictability. None of the political analysts and sociologists did not expect victory in the primaries the Republicans in November last year, former Prime Minister françois Fillon, and then the same success for the socialists, former Minister of education Benoit Amon. Sudden and swift was the growth of popularity of young, but ambitious of Emmanuel Macron. It challenged the standard scenario in which the representative of the center-right goes to the second round of the election, only slightly behind the absolute leader of the race, marine Le Pen, and then wins a decisive victory due to the overflow of the votes of the left electorate in their favor.
And the appearance on the pages of the satirical weekly Le Canard Epsai and Internet portal Mediaprt compromising françois Fillon has become a political knock-down for the favorite in the presidential race. A large part of his party even thinking about replacing their candidate. Three weeks of media attack on Fillon significantly reduced his rating and changed the balance of political forces in favor primarily of Emmanuel Macron and marine Le Pen.
According to recent surveys of the sociological service Opinionway, the undisputed leader of the presidential race remains the leader of “National front” (26-27% of the votes in the first round), second place went Makron (21-22%), pushing on the third (in this case obviously not honorable) place of Fillon, who is ready to vote approximately 20-21% of the electorate.
First, apparently, the enemies of Fillon had spent “cartridges” and stockpiles of dirt ran out. Media campaign of revelations died down. We can assume that its main task is not completed: Fillon has not withdrawn his candidacy and, moreover, begins a counter-offensive. In particular, the lawyers of the former Prime Minister is trying to challenge the actions of the financial Prosecutor’s office, citing procedural violations. The question about the violation of the principle of the presumption of innocence in respect of Fillon and his family members.
Secondly, although the moral-ethical image of the Fillon was irreparably damaged (and it was his excellent reputation is largely due to the success in the primaries), however, disappointed right-wing voters (more than 70% of the French do not believe in the justification of the former Prime Minister), no alternative will be forced to vote in favor of the representative of the Republicans, although, as the saying goes, reluctantly. Besides large-scale persecution of the media Fillon and his family may ultimately lead to the opposite effect — sympathy for the victim of media attacks.
Thirdly, it is possible that a new wave of dirt may be shaken on the main political opponent of the right centrist — Makron. So, the opponents of the leader of movement “Forward!” there are many questions about the sources of financing for his presidential campaign, as well as characteristics of his personal life. Many may discourage marriage Makron with his former French teacher, which is older than her husband by nearly a quarter of a century. However, the French are very liberal attitude to the amorous side of life politicians. For example, it is impossible to imagine that France might occur in a political scandal like the famous story of Monica Lewinsky that almost led to the resignation of bill Clinton.
By estimations of analysts, in the first round, marine Le Pen is unlikely to gain more than 30% of the vote. Involvement in the second round, another 20% is unrealistic for the leader of the extreme right challenge. Even in the event of reaching the second round of the Macron it is difficult to assume that the majority of supporters of right-wing will vote for the representative of the “National front”. Although this turn of events scares Fillon their disappointed supporters, urging them to not vote with your heart and mind.
While the main intrigue of the election — the fight for second place in the first round, which will unfold between Neopolitan Fillon and geocentrism a Macron. The strengths of the past — youth, enthusiasm, focus on innovative approaches in the economy and the social sphere. Although his program is not yet available, however, judging by the performances of the Makron, he adheres to a generally liberal views on the economy, which significantly distinguishes it from the socialist left Amon.
In matters of foreign policy Makron appears to be a staunch Atlanticist and eurooptimists. His overall pragmatic approach to relations with Russia in recent days has been replaced by the traditional accusations of cyber attacks by “Russian hackers” trying to weaken the position of the prospective policy in favor of “Pro-Russian” Le Pen and Fillon.
To a certain extent possible to note a coincidence of socio-economic views of Macron and Fillon. The latter is also in favour of strengthening the competitiveness of the French economy, for its de-bureaucratization. However, these similarities and limited. Fillon rather be regarded as a kind of antithesis of the leader of movement “Forward!”. Indeed, he opposed political experience, a specific program of structural reforms in the country, which stands Fillon, finally, its reliance on traditional values and emphasized the commitment to the policy of Gaullism, which clearly nostalgic considerable part of the French.
The authors ‘ point of view, articles which are published in the section “Opinions” may not coincide with ideas of editorial.