The bottom of the speaker: as a former Minister has described the exit of Russia from crisis

Former Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev

Photo: Nicholas Asmolovskiy for RBC

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Alexei Ulyukayev many will remember his encouraging statements about the state of the Russian economy and forecasts for its development. RBC has assembled a replica of the former Minister of economic development on this topic for the last time

January 31, 2014. “It seems to me that the low point we were in the third quarter of last year, there has been quite encouraging symptoms are gradually improve the situation,” (the College Ministry).

March 16, 2015. “In some areas we are passing or have already passed the most acute areas. If we take financial stability and the position of banks, we have already passed the worst part of the race in December” (meeting with the faction “United Russia”).

July 27, 2015. “We estimate half of the year — a decline of 3.4%, score of the second quarter — approximately 4.4%. We believe that it is probably the low point, and then, beginning in the third quarter, will be some kind of adjustment in a positive direction. We see that the reduced dynamics of decline. We will in the coming weeks expected change trajectory, first month-to-month positive development, and then, in 2016 economic growth year-on-year.”

October 2, 2015. “Starting around June, the economy began to remain in a state of unstable equilibrium, that is, GDP, month-to-month, cleared of seasonality, is zero… It has reached a low point, but not rising… So is the figure on which we orientirueshsya, for eight months we had a minus of 3.8%, I think, before the end of year figure of minus 3.8 to 3.9 per cent” will remain (interview to TV channel “Russia 24”).

Photo gallery
From Gaidar to speaker: 11 Ministers of the Russian economy. Photo gallery

Alexei Ulyukayev was the eleventh Minister of economy in the history of modern Russia. All of his predecessors and their fate after leaving one of the key posts in the government — in the gallery RBC.

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23 Nov 2015. “GDP declined at an annual rate of 3.8% for ten months, third-quarter performance was better than in the second quarter, and we believe that the fourth quarter figures will be better than in the third quarter, so quarterly figures show that the recession in its formal definition has ended. In annual terms we will achieve economic growth in the second quarter of 2016, and by the end of next year, according to our forecast, it will reach 0.7%” (meeting with the heads of the EU diplomatic missions in Russia).

26 January 2016. “Really a good Foundation, now they have cleverly dispose of. And I think that we can moderate, cautious optimism to enter the year” (meeting with Vladimir Putin).

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March 16, 2016. “The Russian economy has adapted to the sanctions regime, and I can cancel it this year or in ten years. Likely and expected that the second quarter of 2016, will show a positive assessment on growth not only in industrial production and GDP” (government hour in the state Duma).

On 24 March 2016. “Two times reduction in inflation dynamics. We expect to end year inflation of less than 8%. Sharply reduced the outflow of capital from Russia: this year, six times less than in the past. There are serious structural changes” (Congress of the RSPP).

April 4, 2016. “Now one of the best situations on inflation for a whole new period.”

21 APR 2016. (Cabinet meeting):

27 APR 2016. “The Russian economy feels as a whole pretty well. We are now in a relatively steady state. The main factor of this is typed in the margin of the economy, the competence of private business. The second factor — adequate anti-crisis policy of the government, smartusa for the economy, the rigidity of the “landing” and have created the conditions for the use of existing and new competitive advantages” (interview to “Vedomosti”).

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24 may 2016

May 31, 2016. “Compared to last year positive dynamics of GDP is evident. We are working to continue to grow, including through investment growth.”

16 June 2016. “The low point of the recession passed, there is fairly rapid recovery of the Russian economy. If last year the drop amounted to 3.7% of GDP, in the four months of this year was 1.1%, for the last six months we expect a decline of less than 1% from the third quarter, the Russian economy will show positive values, the growth of the corresponding period last year. It will be small, but in General we expect that by the end of the current year the recession will completely cease, we will go in positive values” (speech at SPIEF).

18 June 2016. “Yes, this speaker even once the word “bottom” is not used. I was just saying that the recession ended in deep this time. From now on, we came almost at the plateau. It’s not really a plateau, it is almost a plateau all the same with a little less, with a small bias, but very small in comparison with the previous nine months… We believe the third quarter will be a plus” (an interview with Business FM).

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July 1, 2016. “I never use the term “bottom”. Say: the speaker eight times found the bottom of the crisis. Never! I have in the dictionary there is no such word. This is a complete distortion of modern economic reality. There is no bottom from which to start… We, so to speak, descended from one floor to another. Lower not going, but much higher is not obtained. The economy has growth potential around it is the oscillation of the actual growth” (interview “Газете.Ru”).

Former Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev

Photo: Soeren Stache/TASS

19 Jul 2016. “Most importantly, we have changed the sign of capital movements starting in may of this year. We had a huge outflow in 2014 to $153 billion in 2015, it was much less, but still $57 billion since may we have already received the capital inflows is still small, but it is. I see this as serious evidence that restored confidence in the Russian financial market, the Russian economy — we see a lot of investor interest in Russian financial assets, and we all [the forces] to maintain that stability” (interview to TV channel NHK).

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On 4 August 2016. “I think [the dynamics of Russia’s GDP in the third quarter of 2016] will be near zero in the third quarter. Maybe a little bit negative, maybe a little plus. By year until we believe that minus 0.2%, but will still Refine. The situation is unstable at this equilibrium” (meeting with journalists in Laos).

12 Oct 2016. “Last year was a deep recession, this year there is a gradual recovery” (speech at the forum “Russia calling!”).

26 Oct 2016. “This year we live under the sign of economic smoothing. Slowly the situation is improving, but is getting better”.

November 8, 2016. (Meeting with business circles of Italy):

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