The Brainchild Of Obama. Can trump to destroy the TRANS-Pacific partnership?

Vietnam has suspended the ratification of the agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership (TPP), according to Reuters.

“The United States announced the suspension of the filing of the agreement on the TPP in Parliament, so now there are no conditions to Viet Nam sent the agreement for ratification,” — said the head of the Vietnamese government Nguyen Xuan Phuc.

What is the TRANS-Pacific partnership?

Beat all China

The TRANS-Pacific partnership is the largest integration project in the world, the brainchild of U.S. President Barack Obama. In addition to the US and stopped the ratification of the agreement on the TPP, the desire of participation in the partnership expressed Australia, Brunei, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Chile, Japan. The share of these countries account for 40% of the world economy and 30 percent of world trade.

However, the coming to power of the Republican Donald trump casts doubt on the prospects for the TRANS-Pacific partnership: the US President-elect threatens to bring America from the TTP, unless certain conditions are met (which yet is silent).

If the U.S. withdraws from the agreement, then with high probability the partnership can not exist experts believe. The fact is that without America the other States simply have nothing to do with the TTP. “For them it is unprofitable and does not bring the effect that was originally promised. Most likely, other countries for example Vietnam will postpone the ratification of the Treaty until such time as this matter is resolved in the United States. In theory, you can create an alternative to the TPP without the United States, but with China and Russia, as was stated by the President of Peru, but it is then there will be another agreement, not TTP,” admits the expert “Business fairway” Sergey Varlamov.

According to the analyst of “ALOR Broker” Alexey Antonov, the TPP benefit only two countries — America and Japan, and then only with significant reservations.

“The main criticism of the Partnership is to ensure that beneficiaries are only the largest corporations operating in the region, that is, that Japanese and American business, since the agreement between the members of the organization were developed based on their benefits, which include, among others, supranational control over observance of the interests of rights holders and the standardization of products under the American and Japanese consumers and the ability to bypass established by the government barrage of import restrictions, aimed at supporting the most vulnerable sectors of the economy”, — says the expert.

What countries participate in the TRANS-Pacific partnership?

Membership in the TRANS-Pacific partnership there are two sides for each of the project participants. So, export-oriented industries get new advantages in foreign markets, but depressed areas dependent on state subsidies, focused on the domestic market, can get enormous damage. Simply put, the local producers can be simply pushed out of domestic markets with cheap imports.

“For example, under the TTP’s largest dairy producer New Zealand will have the opportunity of expansion into the American market, which will lead to the displacement of more expensive and less quality products from local farmers. Some of these flows will be transferred from domestic to foreign markets, primarily in Japanese, where agriculture is dated, and the price of food significantly higher than the us and even more Vietnamese. For Japanese farmers, this will mean a complete collapse. While Japanese engineering and automotive companies, and manufacturers of construction and specialized equipment will begin to compete in the U.S. with local producers on equal terms, which will reduce their revenue,” says Antonov.

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By and large the TTP is a double — edged sword, including for the United States. Given the fact that the US government is extremely strong lobby of Industrialists, it is now possible refusal of Washington from this integration project or the continuation of the dialogue largely depends on the internal conflict between the representatives of export-oriented business and those who will not be able to withstand the competition in the case of the expansion of imports on the domestic.

I must say that if trump will take America from TTP, this step will primarily play into the hands of China. At the time Barack Obama declared the following: “the United States cannot allow countries like China to determine the rules of the global economy. These rules should we write”. If the TRANS-Pacific partnership will go down in history, China will remain a leading role player in the economy of the Asia-Pacific region.

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