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A gradual increase in the retirement age will help the budget saving from 2030 to 638 billion rubles, follows from the presentation of the Pension Fund. For this age of retirement of men should be raised to 65 and for women to 60 years
Pension Fund (PFR) has solved the calculations, according to which a gradual increase in the retirement age would allow the state budget to reduce expenditure on pensions. This is stated in the presentation (at the disposal of RBC), which is Wednesday, November 23rd, was presented by the head of the FIU Anton Drozdov during a speech at the Financial University under the government.
According to the calculations of the Pension Fund, if in 2019 the government will gradually raise the retirement age for men (for three months each year until 65 years) and women (by six months per year, up to 60 years), and simultaneously increase the age for payout of social pension (for men — up to 70 years and for women up to 68 years), it will allow 2030 to reduce budget expenditures for payments to pensioners 638 billion rubles. Now, the state transfers annually the Pension Fund transfer. In 2016, the size of the support of the FIU should be of 1.03 trillion rubles In the next three years will be slightly less than 1 trillion rubles., according to “Main directions of the budget policy of the Russian Federation in the 2017-2019 years.” “Despite the implementation of individual measures to ensure a balanced budget of the Pension Fund, reducing its dependence on transfers from the Federal budget in the long term, given the prevailing demographic trends remains a major challenge,” the document says.
In 2019 for the transfer of the FIU budget can spend 955 billion rubles, follows from the presentation. The paper also presents calculations of the Ministry of economic development under which budget support in three years should be reduced from 2.6% of GDP that the state spends to help the Pension Fund to 2.2% of GDP. Given the increase in the retirement age, voiced by the head of the FIU, government spending on retirees is likely to fall to 1.4% of GDP.
“Announced the head of the FIU information about raising the retirement age is not the proposals of the Pension Fund, and is a topic for discussion in the expert community”, — told RBC press service of the FIU. The representative of Fund has added that “the FIU on a regular basis conducts a large number of actuarial calculations, including relative spending on pensions in the case of the scenario of raising the retirement age”.
In a presentation that was slide on the discussion of the authorities raising the retirement age — it was only about the suggestions of experts, told RBC member of the forum who attended the presentation by the head of the FIU. According to him, he Drozdov did not say that the authorities discuss the issue.
Previously, the Pension Fund denied media reports that the government is discussing a gradual increase in the retirement age in 2019. The FIU has not received from the orders of the government to carry out calculations of dynamics of expenses for payment of pensions while increasing the retirement age, said the press service of the Fund. A spokesman for Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets confirmed that raising the retirement age is not discussed in the government. “The government is not discussing the question of raising the retirement age, the FIU has no such proposals,” he said.
The Ministry said it had not received for this reason the instructions of the government, the Finance Ministry did not respond to a request RBC.
The FIU explained that the theme of raising the retirement age is widely discussed in the expert community and experts are turning to the FIU for assistance in obtaining estimates of the proposed measures to improve the pension system. A source at social unit does not rule out the possibility that the PFR calculations could be made to the Center for strategic research (CSR), led by ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. The center was established in 1999 on the initiative of Vladimir Putin and has since been engaged in the development of economic programs for the government, including in the field of pension provision.
“The idea of raising the retirement age can be perceived only if it will lead to growth of pensions”, — said the Executive Director of NPF “Safmar” Evgeny Yakushev. In addition, according to him, it will be necessary to solve the issues comfortable employment for those approaching retirement age.
In June the head of CSR Alexei Kudrin in an interview with RBC said that he agreed with the social Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets together to calculate options for the future of pension reform by creating a special working group. According to him, the pension system remains one of the most important structural problems in Russia: the imbalance of the Pension Fund leads to an annual need for significant transfers from the budget and pension savings frozen for three consecutive years. To solve the problem, according to Kudrin, by raising the retirement age, revision of pension and the order of calculating pensions.
The center of such types of work at FIU did not order, said RBC representative CSR.
Proposals to increase the retirement age for citizens repeatedly expressed by officials at various levels. Most consistently for raising the retirement age are in the economic bloc. In April 2016, the Finance Ministry has proposed to reform the pension system, including raising the retirement age and reducing annual indexation of retirees. The Agency proposed to raise the retirement age to 65 years for men and women. In particular, this necessity has ripened, according to the Finance Ministry, due to the fact that the average life expectancy is only since 1995 has increased by 5.2 years for women and seven for men.
The Finance Ministry’s proposals and support the Ministry. According to the Minister’s report, presented in may at the meeting of the Presidium of the Economic Council under the President, the office considers it necessary to raise the retirement age to 63 or 65 for both sexes. “It is necessary not only from the point of view of balancing the pension system, but to extend the period of productive life for future retirees and reducing the shortage of manpower in the market,” wrote RBC, citing the report.
Against raising the retirement age is social block of the government. “In the near future, our strategy identifies, defines a plan of action against pension reform. Through 2018, we do not plan to raise the retirement age,” — said in June Olga Golodets.
The main reason of disputes officials in the gradual worsening of the demographic situation: share of the working population is declining, and retirees — is growing. If in 2015 the proportion of pensioners accounted for 24% of the population, according to Rosstat forecast, by 2030 this figure will reach to 27.5%. Because of this, the contributions from the working population to the pension system is reduced, and liabilities of the Pension Fund grow. According to calculations the MAYOR, the costs of the Pension Fund by 2019 should exceed 9 trillion In 2016, the expected costs of PFR will amount to 7.8 trillion rubles.