Photo: Vitaly ANEC/RIA Novosti
After months of lower rates on deposits number of large players have raised proposals in the framework of seasonal stock. Banks tend to keep investors and are preparing to step up lending, explain to respondents RBC experts
The largest banks surveyed by RBC, from an early autumn launched a seasonal offer with higher interest rates on deposits of individuals. One of the last this week of seasonal promotions, said VTB 24. Previously about similar proposals announced savings, “Open”, & n Bank, Russian agricultural Bank.
Prior to that, from January 2015, banks systematically reduced the rate and a year ago made similar offers less. In particular, the two banks of the running seasonal offers — VTB24 and “Opening” a year ago, I did not such shares, said RBC in the press service of the banks. Respondents RBC experts say that this year, the banking sector, despite excess liquidity, seeks to retain customers and to obtain long ruble resources from individuals.
“Expensive” bet behind
Seasonal offers the major banks can affect the average rate on deposits of individuals, but noticeably it will only be at the end of the year, said chief analyst of Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov. “For individual banks, the growth rates on deposits in the range of 1 PPT can be quite substantial. However, the whole system is almost not affected. The influence of seasonal promotions we will see the end of the year,” he says.
According to the Bank, the underlying level of profitability of deposits in December, which is calculated based on the maximum rates in banks, which attracted two thirds of total deposits on November 1, for a period of up to three months fell by 0.16 PP to 9.23% for a period of up to six months increased by 0.01 percentage points to 9,283%. For deposits for terms under one year and from year to year profitability also decreased. The volume of deposits of physical persons according to the Central Bank for October increased compared to September was only 0.2%, to 23,374 trillion In August and September there was a decline rate of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. In General, over the nine months the volume of deposits of natural persons grew by 0.7%.
In the future, Deposit rates will decline and will not return to the levels of two years ago, said Matovnikov. According to him, in December 2016, the deadline for deposits that were involved in the end of 2014 at high interest rates. “Leave the most expensive of the contributions that were involved in the crisis period. Such clients are banks, of course, makes sense somehow to keep,” he explains.
According to the analyst of Nordea Bank Dmitry Fedenkova, at the end of 2014, banks only in exceptional cases provided for in the conditions of contract automatic rollover. “Banks were not willing to take on additional interest rate risk, so they tried to attract deposits for a period of not more than a year. Then, in consultation with the client, the period could be extended for another year,” he says.
The lowest rate in 2.5 years
In late 2014, after the Central Bank raised the key rate to 17%, the largest banks actively offered to customers deposits with interest rates above 15%. The average rate then, about 10 days has risen by nearly half, and by the end of December reached the level of 15,635%. In small and medium-size banks Deposit interest rates exceeded 20% per annum.
However, after the regulator began in 2015 to reduce the key rate began to deteriorate and offers on deposits. According to the Bank, average size of maximum interest rates in the second decade of July 2016 fell to 8.85% per annum, becoming the lowest since mid-June 2014.
According to senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrova, Russian banks in the last few months have really behaved as if he was trying to show that they don’t need the money people. “The relationship between the Russians bring in money in the Bank, and outputs from deposits, reached an approximate equilibrium in September,” says Bodrov.
Nearing the end of the year, when private balance sheets of banks should be as “combed” and put in a decent view, she said. “That explains too early “holiday”, the financial proposals of banks. In addition, it is likely that banks are stocking up in advance liabilities before Christmas to avoid the vacuum of liquidity early next year”, — says the analyst.
The interlocutors RBC notes that despite the existing surplus liquidity, banks are trying to hoard money for future use. Activity of banks in the Deposit area may be associated with the expectation of seasonal demand for liquidity due to upcoming tax payments, budget and pre-holiday spending standards, according to senior Director financial institutions Fitch ratings Alexander Danilov. “Therefore, in some cases, banks raise rates to gain more customers and to compensate for possible outflows at the end of the year” — the analyst believes.
In November, the Central Bank recorded a structural surplus of liquidity in the amount of RUB 26 billion, while calling it “timid”. According to estimates by the regulator, until the end of 2016 in the banking sector can arise as a deficit and a surplus of liquidity.
“Wanting to increase your capital enough, and opportunities to earn more than enough, so more banks are afraid of losing clients”, — considers the Director of analytical Department of Golden Hills — Kapital AM” Mikhail Krylov.
Additional funds required banks and in connection with development of consumer crediting, the analyst of investment company “Aton” Michael Ganelin. “As we can see, lending is also beginning to come to life. Perhaps in December we will receive additional impetus, especially on the eve of the New year. So some banks need to raise capital, starts the excitement,” said Ganelin.
In order not to experience liquidity problems late in the year, banks are trying to prepare for an influx of customers and increase ruble liquidity, agrees Fedenkov. However, he does not see risks for banks, which come at the expense of active operations to recapture the cost of passive base.