The issue of exchange bonds of “Rosneft” can weaken the ruble, analysts do not exclude Sberbank CIB. However, other experts believe that talking about the impact of this factor on the national currency may be premature
The placement of bonds of “Rosneft” may have a negative impact on the ruble, Sberbank CIB analysts said in a released Thursday review (have RBC). The issue of securities, in their opinion, may be due to the need to Finance the redemption by the company of 19.5% of its stock, which “is regarded as one of the options of privatization of state-owned shares of “Rosneft”, they write.
According to Sberbank CIB, the bonds of the company could weaken the ruble, as the market was expecting a significant supply of foreign currency from “Rosneft” before the deal to buy a 19.5% stake. Market expectations were associated with the fact that this proposal preceded the company’s acquisition of state-owned shares “Bashneft”, analysts wrote in the review.
According to the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Breaking, “Rosneft” can involve the rubles of the bonds through the sale of foreign currency on its balance sheet. “Theoretically, other things being equal, this may lead to the weakening of the ruble,” — does not preclude it.
Yet the fact that the issue of bonds of “Rosneft” comes under a deal to repurchase the package at 19.5%, indicates the Manager of research and Analytics PSB Alexander Polyutov. “Given the size of Rosneft, this is quite a standard program,” he says.
Polutov does not believe that without detailed plans it is possible to speak about its impact on the exchange rate. Chief economist of “Renaissance Capital” Oleg Kuzmin also sees no prospects for the weakening of the ruble from the placement of bonds of “Rosneft”.
CEO of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin at the Eurasian forum in Verona in October it was stated that a possible redemption by the company of 19.5% of its shares from the state will not lead to shocks in the foreign exchange market, but rather will have a positive effect. Sechin also stated that the previously unheard predictions about the destabilization of the ruble due to the purchase of “Rosneft” controlling stake “Bashneft” did not materialize.
The government expects by the end of the year to sell 19.5% of Rosneft shares for an amount not less than 711 billion rubles In mid-October, President Vladimir Putin said that Rosneft’s purchase of this package may be an intermediate step before the “real privatization”. He also noted that the company, which on October 12 paid 329,69 RUB bn for a controlling stake in Bashneft, have the money for this transaction and to raise additional funds from the market she did not need.
On Thursday, Rosneft announced that its Board of Directors on 20 November approved a bond programme amounting to 1,071 trillion. These numbers are not binding, the totals of attraction can be less than the limit, said RBC representative of the company Mikhail Leontyev. Funds will go to international projects, new mining projects in Russia, as well as planned debt refinancing, he explained. The parameters and the maturity of the bonds he did not comment.