First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov promised that the actions of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia on the market to reduce the volatility of the ruble will not last more than 1-2 years. The Bank of Russia once again confirmed that it would not artificially influence the exchange rate of the ruble
The Bank of Russia has no plans to abandon the regime of floating ruble exchange rate and will not conduct foreign exchange intervention to affect the value of the Russian currency, said in comments to the press service of the Central Bank to a request to RBC. To buy and sell the currency, the regulator is going in the budgetary rules.
“By the Bank of Russia monetary policy is aimed at creating macroeconomic conditions for all economic agents, therefore, the objectives of the Bank of Russia does not include the implementation of special measures to support exporters,” – said in comments of the Central Bank. The Bank of Russia noted that the government can provide support to exporters, including smoothing fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate through the fiscal rule. The fiscal rule, together with a policy of keeping inflation around 4% will smooth out the volatility of the Russian currency and affect the competitiveness of Russian producers, believe in the Central Bank.
However, this result can only be achieved by constant application of the budget rule, stress in Bank of Russia. “Any temporary measures will be ineffective and can have negative consequences,” according to the Central Bank.
Operations on purchase and sale of currency the Central Bank will conduct either in the framework of fiscal rules, or its transitional provisions, the review of the regulator. Special terms for market entry will not be provided, purchases and selling of currencies possible for the duration of the budget rules, writes the Central Bank.
Most likely, the purchase of foreign currency does not need to support exporters, but for import restrictions into the country and prevent excessive strengthening of the ruble, says chief economist of “Renaissance capital” Oleg Kuzmin. If he did not believe the exit of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market is a departure from the policy of floating exchange rate, since the output is not tied to a specific course level.
The Central Bank will come to the market with the purchase of currency in the near future – need to seriously consider the construction of this step, the head of operations in the monetary market of Bank “Metallinvest” Sergey Romanchuk. “There is a contradiction between the plans of the government and the Central Bank. The government is best weaker the ruble, the Central Bank stronger,” he says. In the end, most likely, the Bank will act as agent for the Ministry of Finance for the purchase of foreign currency in sovereign funds, says Romanchuk. He also believes that the exit of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market (if it is uniform) can not have a serious impact on the ruble.
Earlier on Friday, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said in an interview with TV channel “Russia 24” that the government and the Central Bank will accumulate foreign currency reserves to insure the ruble from “excessive strengthening”. In his opinion, such decision will allow to stabilize the Russian currency. However, Shuvalov said that it will not always. “It is exactly the same as the counter, will help our exporters some time, some perspective, a year or two, but this cannot go on indefinitely”, is “bad for the economy,” he said.
The very purchase of currency by the Central Bank Shuvalov announced a day earlier that the reason he called the growing oil prices and the volatility of the ruble. The statement of the first Vice-the Prime Minister has reduced the rate of the ruble on the Moscow stock exchange. The dollar on Thursday, January 19, for the first time in a week rose above 60 rubles, Euro – above 64 rubles. But on the same day courses of both currencies has declined to the close of trading Wednesday. Later, the Central Bank issued a statement, which said that the monthly volume of purchases of foreign currency within the framework of the transitional provisions of the budget rule will not exceed the amount of the monthly additional oil and gas revenues from the excess of actual oil prices levels budgeted ($40 per barrel, RBC).
A floating exchange rate operates in Russia since November 2014. The course is not fixed, and its dynamics is determined by the ratio of supply and demand for foreign currency in the market. On the website of the Central Bank says that the Bank of Russia in normal conditions does foreign exchange intervention to affect the dynamics of the ruble. “At the same time, the Bank of Russia is closely monitoring the situation on the currency market and can make transactions with foreign currency to maintain financial stability,” – noted on the website of the Central Bank.
Main trading session on the Moscow exchange on Friday, January 20, resulted in a slight weakening of the ruble against the dollar. At 19.00 Moscow time the Russian currency amounted to 59,84 rbl./$, which is 12 kopecks. above the closing level Thursday.