The new launch of North Korean rocket, launched on 15 September, caused a strong reaction around the world and scared the neighbors of the DPRK.
At the meeting of the national security Council, the head of South Korea moon Jae-In said that “dialogue with Pyongyang in such a situation is impossible” and threatened the DPRK’s complete destruction. In response, Pyongyang threatened to destroy Japan, and the US coast.
Can all of these threats become a reality and in what time frame? This “MK” said a leading Russian expert in the field of nuclear weapons, the former head of the military security apparatus of the security Council, chief of staff of the strategic missile forces (1994-1996) Colonel-General Viktor Esin.
For a start, recall: released on Thursday by the rocket, according to preliminary estimates of experts, were of the same class that started on August 29, namely: – “Hwaseong-12”. She flew almost the same track over the Japanese island of Hokkaido. However, in August, rising to a maximum of 550 km, she then fell into the ocean at a range of 2700 km, and now the height of its flight reached 770 km, and the range of 3,700 km.
These figures are crucial, as the American island of GUAM located in the Pacific ocean, located in the 3400 km from Pyongyang. That is, the missile with its nuclear stuffing is a direct threat to the United States, which, in fact, does not conceal Kim Jong-UN.
But just about a year ago, almost all nuclear and missile tests conducted by North Korea have failed. Now the situation has changed dramatically. Why?
According to Viktor Esin, progress in rocket the North Koreans there was, indeed, significant, and probably not without outside help. Such assistance, according to the expert, most likely could have been Ukraine but not officially, but through the so-called “black market”.
In addition, says our expert, North Korea has progressed in recent years, not only in rocketry, but also in terms of increasing the capacity of nuclear warheads and increasing their number.
General Esin assumes that the missile forces of the DPRK today can be armed with a dozen ballistic missiles with a range up to 1,300 km, which can be equipped with a nuclear warhead. But longer-range rockets, including “Hwaseong-12”, fly across the Japanese island of Hokkaido, are still in the testing stage, and their start, and still can not serve as evidence that Pyongyang has modified such a missile.
As for the real threat to the United States, the expert thinks about it seriously, you can only speak when the missile is put into service, and it will happen when she will consistently achieve the estimated range.
In addition, we must bear in mind that Pyongyang blackmail was always inclined to exaggerate their success, claiming that he is able today to strike almost at Los Angeles. South Korean agencies and the media is also beneficial to ignite the subject of threats from the North, to make an impact on the United States, intensifying their pressure on the DPRK.
At the same time, the expert believes, the real nuclear threat from Pyongyang, it is impossible to downplay. In his view, the arming of the army of the DPRK missiles with ranges up to 4000-5000 km is the Outlook for the next two to three years. The creation of Intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the continental coast of the United States is a more distant prospect. This may not be until 2022-2023 years.
But that did not happen, said Viktor Yesin, the output is only one: to negotiate today. And the first step towards dialogue should be done by one who is not only smarter, but stronger. Therefore, a reasonable action here should be expected from Washington, which is many times stronger than Pyongyang.