– The government on Monday has approved the forecast socially-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2018-20 years, said the Minister of economic development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin at a briefing following the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers.
At the end of August. reported that the Agency raised in the base case forecast average annual prices for Urals crude oil in 2017 to $49 per barrel (c $45.6 in the April version), in 2018 – to $43,8 ($40,8), has retained the forecast for 2019 at $41,6 and for 2020 at $42,4.
Экономика18 Sep 2017Орешкин gave a forecast of the stability of the ruble in 2018-20. Read more
In this last week. said that even the August version of the forecast was adjusted slightly in September, the budget Commission in respect of the 2017 inflation, exchange rate and oil prices. In the latest edition of forecast inflation in 2017 is expected to reach 3.2 per cent (in the August version was 3,7%), the price of oil – USD 49.9 per barrel (was $49), and the average annual exchange rate of 59.4 rubles per dollar (59.7 ruble).
The GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2017 in the baseline scenario were increased to 2.1% in 2018, also to 2.1% in 2019 to 2.2% in 2020 to 2.3%. In the previous version of the April forecast GDP growth in the baseline scenario in 2017 is expected to reach 2.0 percent in the 2018-2020 year – 1.5% per year.
. In late August, noted that the Ministry has prepared an updated macroeconomic forecast for the next three years, assuming the continuation of sanctions until the end of this period. Thus a new forecast for oil prices was done on the premise of the implementation of agreements on OPEC+ until the end of March 2018.
The new forecast of Ministry of economic development expects inflation in the current year at the level of 3.2%, and in 2018-2020 years left of target at 4%.
The average annual ruble exchange rate in 2017 is projected at 59.4 per rubles per dollar (ruble 64.4 in the April version), in 2018 64.7 ruble (69.8 per ruble), in 2019 – 66,9 rubles (71.2 ruble), in 2020 – 68 rubles (72.7 per ruble).
The forecast for industrial production growth in 2017 by 2% saved. In 2018-2020 forecast upgraded to 2.5% annually. Expectations for growth in retail trade, in contrast, lowered to 1.2% from 1.9% in 2017. However, the following year, they became more optimistic growth will be 2.9%, in 2019 – 2.7%, in 2020 – 2,5%.
The growth of investment in fixed capital in 2017, upgraded to 4,1%, and in 2018-2020 – to 4.7-5.7 percent per year.
In addition, the Ministry of economic development has slightly increased its forecast of growth in real income in the current year to 1.2% in 2018 to 2.1%. In 2019 their growth, according to the forecast, however, again fell to 1.1% in 2020 to 1.2%.
The current account will decline from $27 billion in 2017 to $7 billion in 2018 and $1.5 billion in 2019-2020.
“In General, the main difference between the current forecast from the forecast of April – the revised investment figures investment activity for the entire three-year period”, – explained at the end of August M. the improvement in forecast GDP for the next three years.