“Started in German elections to the Bundestag. Generalization

Right “Alternative for Germany” after the elections could become the third after favorites a political force in Germany

The building of the Bundestag in Berlinetta:epa/vostock-photo

The right-populist party “Alternative for Germany” (“ADH”) following the elections to the Bundestag has a chance to become the third political force after led by Angela Merkel of the block of Christian parties and the social Democrats, that represents a serious challenge to the current German establishment, think Russian political scientists-Germanic studies.

“The party “Alternative for Germany” is gaining sympathizers not on ideological, programmatic positions, and protest. I believe that right-wing populists can easily gain an additional 2-3 % of the vote. I do not exclude that after the elections they would get up to 15 %. They are betting on to become the Bundestag’s third power after the block of Christian parties and the social Democrats” – said to “Interfax” the head of the Center for German studies Institute of Europe Russian Academy of Sciences, Vice-President of the society “Russia-Germany” Vladislav Belov.

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The right alternative in German

The Federal election campaign right-wing populists in relied heavily on the groundwork that the “Alternative for Germany” has secured at the regional level.

“Of the 16 Federal States, the party is represented in 13 of the diet (state Parliament). German political scientists and sociologists trying to figure out what and how does “ADG” on the land and municipal levels. I think this will be the subject of scientific research. The German society has formed a demand for a new political force able to challenge the modern establishment. Right-wing populists are making efforts to fill this gap and to convince voters that they respond to such a request,” – said to “Interfax”, leading researcher of the National research Institute of world economy and international Affairs. Yevgeny Primakov, member of the Board of the society “Russia-Germany” Victor Vasilev.

According to the Germanist, “ADH” will be a more serious challenge in the preservation on the outcome of the election the so-called “Grand coalition” with the participation of the block of Christian parties (Christian democratic Union and ideologically its sister Bavarian party the Christian social Union) and the social Democrats.

“This party, anyway, is the challenge the current party-political system and establishment. But in the case of a new edition of the “Grand coalition” with the effect of this call might be stronger. “Alternative for Germany”, if you get into the Bundestag, and, judging by the polls, she has the chance, will be, at least, one of the leading political forces that constantly criticize foreign and domestic policy of Berlin”, – said Vladimir Vasiliev.

According to experts, interest in the election campaign right-wing populists is that Germany is the last major European country where eurosceptics are actively trying to get into power. If the results held in March in the Netherlands, elections to the States-General (Parliament) and the June elections to the National Assembly of France the skeptics of European integration from a right-leaning have not taken a convincing position, “ADG” remains an open question.

“At the party “Alternative for Germany” is growing significantly in popularity. Now it is the only political force that in the last days before the election, “gaining points”. It is likely that the “ADH” can come in third place. In this respect, the skeptics hold the intrigue,” – said “Interfax” the head of the Center for European studies of the Russian Institute for strategic studies (RISS) Ludmila Vorobyova.

In her estimation, if “ADH” will be able to achieve such a result, it will seriously affect the political balance of power. “In this case, many calculations (for coalitions) will not be justified,” – said the expert.

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Options for coalitions

Opinion polls show that the election to the Bundestag first place in the votes will go to block Merkel, who will speak to the senior partner in coalitions. Currently the Federal Chancellor does not exclude three variants of coalition partnerships.

The first option involves retaining the current “Grand coalition” involving the CDU/CSU and their traditional ideological opponents of the social Democrats.

The second variant was given the symbolic title “Jamaica”, and involves block Merkel, free Democrats and greens. This name appeared on the results held on may 14, elections to the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. There was formed the so-called “black-yellow-green coalition”. Black symbolizes the CDU/CSU, yellow – free Democrats, and the green environmental party.

The third option involves a coalition partnership unit of the Christian parties with the free Democrats.

“Different types of coalitions there are contradictions between the potential partners. From the point of view of the SPD, at least the majority of the members of the Board of the party “Grand coalition” unacceptable from the point of view of further prospects of social democracy in Germany. To be a Junior partner in the new coalition is the path to nowhere, and a clear course for the deepening of the crisis,” said Belov.

As noted by the Germanist, the leader of the social Democrats, Martin Schulz, “neat said that if Merkel will offer the option of the party to support him”. In response to criticism in connection with the willingness to go to such a partnership M. Schulz, experts say, may argue that such an Alliance is an effective means to influence the Federal Chancellor.

The main prize for the Junior partner in the coalition, according to tradition, is the post of the Vice-Chancellor and foreign Minister. And here, according to Belov, if considered option Jamaica, there are serious problems associated with the inconsistencies between free Democrats and greens.

“The question is whether green will be ready to discuss a coalition with the CDU/CSU and the free Democrats. The desire to obtain positions in the government of Ozdemir (CEM özdemir, a German politician of Turkish origin, co-chair of the green party) “with comrades” is available, but it is unknown how the leader of the free Democrats Christian Lindner will react to harsh criticism green in the address FDP,” said the Germanist.

Free Democrats for a significant part of the history of the Federal Republic was the traditional Junior partner to the CDU/CSU and the SPD. Evaluation L. Vorobyova, a traditional bale, this time, is very problematic. “Judging by sociological polls, the CDU/CSU can gain 36% of the vote. Free Democrats to become the Junior coalition partner, needs to gain 15%. But the liberals are unlikely to gain,” – said the expert.

However, you can quite precisely define what a coalition is, by definition, impossible. “Merkel outlined the only two parties that are willing to negotiate – “Alternative for Germany” and “Left,” – said Belov.

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Voices of Russian-speaking Germans

Germany is home to several million ethnic Germans who moved in due time from the USSR and post-Soviet countries. According to experts, the Russian-speaking electorate in a certain way, affect the election results.

As the Professor of the Institute of public administration and management (IIPAM) at Ranepa, expert on Germany Tatiana Ilarionova, the main struggle for the votes of that part of the electorate was between the Christian Democrats and small parties.

“The CDU, and in General, the block of Christian parties traditionally appealed to the fact that it was through their political course of the Russian Germans at the time had the opportunity to move to Germany. It’s a pretty strong argument. Someone he acted, and someone, on the contrary, regarded it with skepticism,” – said T. Ilarionova “Interfax”.

In her estimation, a significant part of the Russian Germans who moved to Germany a few disappointed political course of the Christian Democrats. One of the targets for criticism by the Russian Germans has become a migration policy in Germany, which on the one hand, gives a chance “ADG”, said the expert.

“Many Russian Germans have revised their political sympathies, and a large part became the driving force that gave impetus to the “Alternative for Germany”. But this does not mean that they perceive right-wing populists as “their” party. A lot of Russian Germans even convinced that “ADG” was just trying to use their voices in the election campaign,” – said the Professor of iipam, Ranepa.

If CDU/CSU and the eurosceptics can count on at least a portion of the votes of the Russian Germans, for the social Democrats and the “Left” this area is almost futile, says the Germanist. “I believe that the Russian Germans would not vote in favor of the social Democrats and the left. The reason is that the ideas of left-wing they are associated with the Soviet past. Those of the Germans who left ideas close, remained in Russia. Among the settlers are very few adherents of social-democratic ideas, as people went to Germany, hoping to find themselves under capitalism,” she said.

Stability against Moscow

The foreign policy of Berlin the Federal Chancellor determines, and given the high chances of Angela Merkel to hold this position again, it can be expected that any radical changes in the Russian direction will not. “Given the fact that Merkel is not a supporter of jerks, and big steps can be expected that the “breakthrough” in the Eastern policy will not” – said Vorobyov.

A person of a particular policy, which will be headed by the German foreign office, will influence except on the atmosphere, but not the content of the dialogue with Moscow.

“Lindner is quite active, and has positioned itself as a conduit of ideas Genscher (Hans-Dietrich Genscher, a free Democrat, the Vice-Chancellor and German foreign Minister 1974-1992 years), vystraivanii relationship according to the formula Realpolitik. The free Democrats in the Russian direction there were positions that differ from what Merkel says, for example, on the issue of Crimea. Green in this regard against Moscow make even greater critical positions than the CDU,” said Vasiliev.

However, according to experts, it is important to understand that certain statements of German politicians against Moscow, sounded in recent months by Russian subjects, were associated rather with the election campaign than with a real agenda for dialogue with Moscow.

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