– Consumer prices in Russia for the week from 10 to 16 October, has not changed, said Wednesday Rosstat. In the previous five weeks, inflation was zero, two consecutive weeks were recorded deflation of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. From 15 to 21 August, prices have not changed, and before that three weeks in a row also decreased by 0.1%.
However, cumulatively from the beginning of the month prices by 16 October increased by 0.1% (taking into account rounding) from the beginning of the year rose 1.7%.
As reported, in September, deflation in Russia amounted to 0.1% after record for all time of observation of deflation of 0.5% in August. Deflation for two consecutive months was only the second time (previously in 1997).
Average daily price growth for the first 16 days of October was equal to 0,004%. Over the same period of October last year, the average increase was 0,018%. Based on these data, annual inflation at the end of September (2,96%) that on 16 October, the inflation in annual terms fell to 2.7 percent – more than 1 percentage point was removed from the target CBR of 4%.
For the first time since the beginning of July began to rise prices for fruits and vegetables (the last time they rose for the week from 27 June to 3 July, then decreased), the increase amounted to 1.5%. Including cucumbers and tomatoes prices rose for the week and 15.3% and 11.2% respectively. The cabbage, onions, carrots and apples became cheaper by 1,0-1,8%, potatoes – by 0.2%.
For the last week eggs have risen by 1.9 percent, milk, sour cream and cheese – by 0.2%.
At the same time the price of sugar fell by 1.3%, buckwheat – by 0.6%, tea, wheat and flour – on 0,2-0,3%.
Prices for gasoline have not changed, on diesel fuel – rose 0.2%.
The Ministry expects inflation in October at 0.2-0.3 percent per annum and 2.7% to 2.8%. By the end of 2017, the Ministry called the most probable interval for inflation in the 2.7-3.2 percent. The head of Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin on Saturday told reporters that the deviation of annual inflation from the target is already “serious” and “bad.” According to him, such a significant slowdown of the annual inflation caused by monetary factors.
The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina last week on the contrary said that the decline in the annual inflation rate below 3%, the Bank of Russia considers “completely normal, this is not a deviation from the target” and caused by temporary factors.
Central Bank of the Russian Federation in September has lowered the inflation forecast for 2017 to 3.5-3.8%, and now, she said, will reduce to 3.2%.
In September, the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to 8.5% from 9%. The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which will address the issue of the level of the key rate, scheduled for 27 October 2017.
The Director of the Department of monetary policy of the Central Bank Igor Dmitriev on Tuesday told reporters that the preservation of the Bank of Russia key rate is now unlikely, market expectations to lower them by 25 or 50 basis points does not diverge greatly from the regulator’s perspective