– Organization of countries-exporters of oil (OPEC) expects the increase in world oil demand by 2022 to 102.3 million b/d, according to the annual forecast of the cartel’s World Oil Outlook (WOO).
This figure was revised upwards by 2.24 million b/d compared to last year’s forecast of OPEC. According to the expectations of the cartel, the average annual increase in demand in the period up to 2022 will amount to around 1.2 million b/d.
According to the calculations of OPEC, oil demand in Russia to 2016 amounted to 3.4 million b/d in 2017-2018 it was 3.5 million b/d in 2019-2021 from 3.6 million b/d in 2022 – 3.7 million b/d. In 2030 this will rise to 3.8 million b/d, by 2040, will return to the level of 3.7 million b/d.
The cartel has also improved its forecasts for world oil demand in the long term, which by 2040 is expected to reach 111.1 million b/d. With the projected slowdown in oil demand from 1.3 million b/d by 2020, to 300 thousand b/d in the period from 2035 to 2040 amid anticipated increases in oil prices, further tightening of policies in the field of energy efficiency and/or technological improvements, as well as slowing down GDP growth.
In particular, the demand in OECD countries will decline by 8.9 million b/d by 2040. The demand for oil in developing countries by 2040 will increase by nearly 24 million b/d due to high population growth rates and stronger economic growth, by 2022 it will increase to 6.5 million b/d.
OPEC expects China will remain the largest consumer of oil by 2040, increasing the demand for 6 million b/d – to 17.8 million b/d. India will become the second country in the growth of demand for oil, increasing it by 2040 5.9 million b/d.
The greatest contribution to the future energy demand according to OPEC, will contribute gas. It is expected that the demand for gas by 2040 will increase by almost 34 million b/d and will reach 93 million b/d.
Together oil and gas will provide more than half of global energy needs in the period up to 2040. Their combined share among other energy sources remained relatively stable at 52-53%.