European Commission (EC) predicts an increase in Russia’s GDP of 1.6% in 2018, which is better the may evaluation, which constituted 1.4 per cent.
As stated in the autumn macroeconomic forecast of the European Commission, evaluation of the growth of the Russian economy in 2017, confirmed at 1.7%. In 2019 (the first estimate) is expected to slow the rise to 1.5%.
“Improving growth prospects have contributed to the continued stabilization of the macroeconomic environment and the rise in oil prices that led to higher business and consumer confidence and inclusive growth of domestic demand,” – noted the experts of the European Commission.
The EC expects inflation in Russia this year at 3.9%, in 2018 – by 3.7%. The examiners positively assess the activities of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which successfully inhibits the growth of prices and expect further declines in interest rates in the country.
In addition, according to the European Commission in Russia will continue fiscal consolidation, while the increase in oil revenues and the growth of economic activity, are likely to slightly increase in nominal government spending. The budget deficit in Russia in 2019 is likely to decline to 1.1% of GDP from 3.7% of GDP in 2016.
Price forecasts for Brent oil prices slightly reduced from the may levels for the current year by 3.3% to us $53.6 per barrel in 2018, 0.2 percent, to $55,7 per barrel. In 2019 is expected to reduce average annual price of Brent to us $54.7 per barrel.
In relation to other leading emerging markets, the EC forecasts remain heterogeneous, although in General it is expected the economic recovery on the forecast horizon (2019 inclusive).
So, the Outlook for China improved from 6.6% to 6.8% in 2017, from 6.3% to 6.5% in 2018. In 2019, the expected slowdown of Chinese economy growth to 6.2%. The European Commission raised its forecast for Brazil’s GDP in 2017 from 0.5% to 0.6%, but next year, as before, is expected to increase up to 1.8 per cent.
The forecast of the European regulator for India’s GDP in 2017, downgraded from 7.2% to 6.6%. In 2018 the growth is likely to increase to 7.5% in 2019 to 7.6%.
GDP growth Mexico may be higher than the may expectations to 2.1% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018 against the spring assessments at the level of 1.7% and 2.1%, respectively.