– The Russian stock market opened Wednesday, further price growth blue chips amid increased oil and indices; indices Mosberg and RTS per minute bidding added to 0.1-0.4%.
By 10:01 Moscow time the index of Mosuri made 2253,15 points (+0.1%), RTS index – 1231,7 points (+0.4%), ruble prices of the main “chips” on “Moscow stock exchange” has grown by less than 1 percent.
The dollar is worth 57,63 RUB (no change).
The leaders of growth were shares of Mechel (+0.9% from +0.6% “preferred shares”), Raspadskaya (+0,6%), “Masuri” (+0,5%), Sberbank (+0.5% and 0.6% for “preferred shares”), Sistema (+0,4%), Russian grids (+0.4% and +1% “preferred shares”), RUSAL (+0,4%).
Sank shares “Surgutneftegaz” (-0,4%), “Novolipetsk metallurgical combine” of -0.3% (, the “preferred shares” Transneft (-0,3%), Bashneft (-0.4 per cent).
Indexes in the U.S. on Tuesday ended with a rise for the third consecutive session in anticipation of a key report on consumer inflation for January (16:30 Moscow time).
Experts polled by MarketWatch on average expect an increase of consumer prices in the United States last month by 0.4% compared to December, excluding the cost of food and energy 0.2%.
Economists fear that higher than forecast inflation in the U.S. could cause another downturn in the stock markets because expectations of higher inflation and the impact of this factor on the rate of increase in base rates by the Fed triggered a sharp increase in volatility and the decline in markets last week.
Traders also assess the draft budget of the United States to 2019 fiscal year presented Monday by the administration of President Donald trump. The draft budget foresees Federal spending of $4.4 trillion, while the budget deficit is expected to increase to $984 billion, with approximately us $666 billion at the end of last vingada ended 30 September.
Under the bill, the White house presented a plan of investment of us $200 billion over 10 years in the restoration and development of the country’s infrastructure, including roads, bridges, tunnels and airports.
Few of the experts expects the U.S. Congress will approve the draft budget in its current form, given the inclusion in it of a substantial saving of expenditure on social programs, writes MarketWatch.
In Asia on Wednesday observed a mixed dynamics of indexes (sank Japan due to the strengthening of the yen, grown up China). Thursday exchanges China and South Korea close to the end of the week to celebrate the New year according to the Lunar calendar, on Friday, will be closed and the Hong Kong market. Chinese markets will not be run until February 22.
Japan’s GDP in the IV quarter of 2017 rose 0.5% yoy (expected growth of 0.9%) after rising 2.2% in the third quarter growth recorded at the end of the eighth quarter in a row – the longest period of sustained growth of GDP since the late 80-ies.
Oil Wednesday morning after a minor stable and opposite changes at the end of the previous session. The cost of the April futures for Brent crude by 10:01 on Wednesday was $62,8 per barrel (+0.1% and +0.2 percent the day before), the March price WTI – $59,16 per barrel (-0,1% -0,2% the day before).
Report of the International energy Agency (IEA), released on Tuesday, was perceived by the market as mixed. On the one hand, the IEA raised its forecast for growth in global oil demand, and warned about the possible growth of shale oil in the United States.
IEA raised the forecast of growth of oil demand in 2018 for 100 thousand barrels per day (b/d) – up to 1.4 million b/d. However, the rate of increase of demand will be lower than in 2017, when they amounted to 1.6 million b/D. in addition, according to the IEA, oil production from non-OPEC this year will exceed growth in demand.
The Agency also noted that the strong growth of demand in 2017, a slight increase in oil production from non-OPEC and the efforts of the parties to the transaction OPEC+ to limit oil production led to a significant drop oil stocks in the OECD countries.
According to the main analyst of Bank “GLOBEKS” Viktor Veselov, oil marks time near $63 per barrel in the Asian session on the background of the forecast API increase of crude oil inventories in the United States by 3.95 million barrels. Therefore during the European session, the price of “black gold” will remain without growth, which will have a partial pressure on the ruble, although in favour of its strengthening plays insurance premiums on Thursday.
Publication of data on inflation in the US may cause volatility in the U.S. market, which will affect world markets. Investors expect rising inflation due to the increase in the average hourly wage in the United States, which will increase the probability of increasing top-level interest rates, the fed in late March. Against this background, the yield on us government bonds continue to rise to 2.9%. Emerging markets will receive the outflow of liquidity due to the increase in dollar rates.
As noted by an investment analyst Global FX Sergei Kostenko, the Japanese yen has reached 15-month highs in terms of the flight from risk ahead of the inflation report in the U.S., which can make quite serious changes in the dynamics of the foreign exchange and stock markets. The slowdown in consumer price growth will allow capital markets to breathe a sigh of relief and will increase pressure on the dollar. However, the players, citing the recent strong data on wages, fear that the CPI will reflect the result of the above forecasts. In this scenario, the flight from risk will increase, and the dollar will get a chance to recover.
In the oil market movements have become more stable and calm after recent sales. However, downside risks remain, and the bears could not loosened his grip, keeping Brent above $63 per barrel. Most likely, until the publication of the report of the US Department of energy price movement will be limited, and in the evening session resource segment will digest the latest data on reserves and production in the United States, and to respond to General dynamics of the interest risk. It is not excluded pressure with the return under Brent above $62 per barrel.