– Anti-Russian sanctions will continue to negatively affect the growth of the Russian economy, but the situation will be compounded in the case of the introduction of Moscow’s countermeasures, according to a review of the “Comments on state and business” of the Institute “development Center” Higher school of Economics.
“The size of the Russian economy is much less of the US economy, and this means that any sensitive for the United States sanctions hit Russia is much stronger. Secondly, the USA is ready to expand sanctions in connection with the situation in Syria. Third, even in the framework of existing sanctions the increase of capital outflows in 2018, could significantly exceed $20 billion. fourth, the Russian export may eventually be reduced by more than $3-4 billion, as unknown range of companies and countries that follow the recommendations of the United States,” – the authors of the review.
In their view, “the effect of implicit sanctions may exceed the effect of explicit, including due to the fact that under implicit sanctions can fall and other products of Russian export”.
“Of course, we must take into account compensatory mechanisms that can reduce the negative impact of sanctions. First, fell under the ban of the Russian export to the USA can be redirected to other countries. Secondly, if the situation with the outflow of capital will continue to deteriorate, it is possible to use the Bank of Russia of foreign currency REPO tool, as it was in 2014-2015, the Less probable a refusal of the Ministry of Finance purchase foreign currency from under the budget rules,” – noted in the “Comments about the state and business”.
The authors of the review believe that even if the situation would be for the “favourable” scenario, without further escalation, the sanctions will probably require cash infusions from the state, and the situation on podcasting and related businesses will deteriorate, which can cause the growth of social tension in an already difficult post-crisis period.
“Whether the source of financing of the budget or, as already announced, state-owned banks, injections are unlikely to be comparable to the harm suffered. The problem with the victims of the sanctions will conflict for resources with long-term goals such as infrastructure development and human potential. In General, the resumption of the war of sanctions reinforced the increasing isolation of the Russian economy, which helps to perpetuate its technological gap and the persistently low rate of economic growth,” the review says.
Previously about the inappropriateness of retaliatory sanctions against U.S. companies also said the head of the Center for strategic research, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.
As reported, the Council of the Duma appointed on 15 may, the plenary session of the state Duma in the first reading the bill about the counter-sanctions against the US and the countries supporting anti-Russian policy. The authors of the bill have 327 of 450 deputies of the chamber.
Earlier in April, the U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions against Russia. The business in the “black list” was made the Chairman of the Board “Gazprom” Alexey Miller, businessmen Viktor Vekselberg, Igor Rotenberg, Oleg Deripaska, Suleiman Kerimov, Andrei Skoch and Vladislav Reznik, the head of Gazprombank Andrey Akimov and head of VTB Andrey Kostin. The sanctions imposed to the General Director “Surgutneftegaz” Vladimir Bogdanov, Board member of “SIBUR” Kirill Shamalov.
On Sunday, the U.S. permanent representative to the UN, Nikki Haley has declared readiness of Washington to announce new sanctions against Russia because of alleged himataki in Syria.
Follow us on Yandex.The news