New economic development Ministry forecast for oil prices in 2018 is based on their gradual decline to $58.9 in December. This was reported “Interfax” a source familiar with the draft of the revised macroeconomic forecast. The Agency sent him to the Finance Ministry last week.
Earlier, a source reported that the Ministry of economic development proposed as a new forecast average price of Urals crude oil in the baseline scenario to lay $61,4 per barrel for 2018 instead of the current $43,8 per barrel.
According to the source, according to a new forecast, the Ministry expects a decline in the price of Urals crude in the second quarter to $61,3 $65,1 in the first quarter. In III quarter average price is expected by the Ministry at $60,3 per barrel in the fourth quarter – $59,1.
The economic development Ministry has not officially disclosed the figures to the revised macroeconomic forecast, although the market has been waiting for their publication in the first half of April. The reason could be the new American sanctions and the ensuing weakening of the ruble, which may require adjustment of some parameters of the forecast. It is obvious that in the variant of Ministry of economic development sent to the Ministry last week, these force majeure factors, the Agency considered did not, said the interlocutor of “Interfax”. The final version of the macroeconomic forecast will be ready in may, said a source in the Ministry of economic development.
According to a follow-up activity the current version of the macroeconomic forecast, the inflation rate in 2018, it is expected by the Ministry at the level of 2.8% (Ministry even expects annual inflation in June may fall to 1.8%) vs 4% in the previous forecast version. New average annual dollar exchange rate for the year 2018, the Ministry-level 58.6 rubles per dollar, against 64.7 ruble previous forecast, and by the end of 2018, at 58.8 rubles (against 66.1 per ruble in the previous version of the forecast). However, the incident of the weakening of the ruble, apparently, in the future, if revision by mid-may could affect the improvement of the new forecast for inflation and the dollar.
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