Mathematics of football quarterfinals: Russia at the world Cup need a miracle

Whether there is at Russian national team a chance in a confrontation with the Croats? They have strong, big-name players, we have the whole country. What would be the outcome of this meeting – will try to guess using “football equations” based on previous games in the 2018 world Cup.

Warm-up of the Russian team before the match with Croatia. A photo of the official Twitter of the Russian team.

For a start look at how this “mathematical” the scheme works on the example of the match of 1/8 final of the world Cup Russia – Spain. Then Russian fans thanks to the victory of Uruguay over Portugal there is hope. And here’s why:

1. Russia is weaker than Uruguay. It showed the game in the group stage, when the wards of cherchesova lost 0:3.

2. Uruguay is stronger than Portugal. The day before the match Russia – Spain, these teams have met in the 1/8 finals. And Uruguay won 2:1.

3. Spain is on the same level with Portugal. This is evident from their meeting in the group stage, which ended in a draw 3:3.

Of “an equal level with Portugal” it can be concluded that Spain is weaker than Uruguay.

4. It follows that with Spain we could play well enough, better than Uruguay. If he lost to Portugal, it would have been much more pessimistic. After all, if we are unable to win against Uruguay, we will be able to do it with a team that could potentially beat him?

So, the Russian team beat Spain. But then these “theoretical” chances were much higher than they are now.

And here again the game, now the 1/4 finals of the world Cup. And again Uruguay. But now he’s just frustrating. And not because the Uruguay left the number of teams – contenders for the title of world champion. And because because of the loss of Russia the chances of future output have become less. See why Uruguay – France so important to us.

This time the “terrible math” looks like this:

1. Let’s start with Uruguay. Uruguay is stronger than Russia (3:0, this was already discussed).

2. Uruguay are weaker than France, as it turned out in the 1/4 final match that took place on 6 July. Uruguay lost – 0:2.

3. Now France. France is weaker than Croatia. Both teams played with Argentina:

France – Argentina 4:3 (the match of 1/8 final)

Croatia – Argentina 3:0 (group stage match)

Of course, the group stage and the playoffs are two totally different things. But still their first game Argentina played a draw with Iceland, so match with Croatia for her almost stopped meeting in the playoffs.

4. So, Russia. Historical the 1/4 finals of the world Cup. The match with Croatia. And now we really need an even bigger miracle than it was then, with Spain. With Spain we could play, “estimated” Spain is even worse than Uruguay.

But Croatia not Spain. Croatia is stronger than in France (we conclude from the meetings of both teams with Argentina). In turn, France is stronger than Uruguay (as it turned out in the match on 6 July). And we are weaker than Uruguay.

It turns out, we have to play with a team that is stronger than the one played (and lost) our opponent, which we still lost…

5. A miracle. It is the miracle (whose name, perhaps, Igor Akinfeev) got us to the quarter-finals. To our historical 1/4! We for the first time in 32 years out of the group. Already this can be considered an achievement (no matter what anyone said about the level of Egypt and Saudi Arabia). But surprisingly most we passed on, our first in the new Russian history of the 1/4 finals in the world Cup.

It is the miracle wedged in “football equation.” It has repeatedly rebuffed many “predictions” that are based on the fact that one of the teams before the game was considered much weaker than the other.

This world Cup really breaks all the patterns. Stars, giants football flew home (Messi and Ronaldo). Germany (winner of the 2014 world Cup) didn’t even qualify from the group. Brazil, which many considered almost the main contender for victory in the 1/4 finals lost to Belgium 1:2.

One of the most unexpected outcomes was the result of the match Germany – South Korea. Germany was the last chance to catch the exit from the group. In addition, this latest, third game of the group stage for the Germans had with South Korea, a team that all the previous matches lost (with Sweden 0:1 and with Mexico 1:2).

And here 2:0 — victory of South Korea.

Such as the unexpected tenacity demonstrated the Morocco national team in the match with Spain. Before this game, she lost 2 meetings (with Iran 0:1 and Portugal 0:1). But in his last match (even winning it did not give them a chance to get out of the group) players from Morocco made him worry Spanish fans. Of course, Spain would not come out only in case of loss the team of Morocco in conjunction with the “unwanted” outcome in the parallel match. But still…

So, The Spain – Morocco 2:2. Spain was twice lost and had to recoup. A draw 2:2 appeared on the scoreboard in the stoppage time of the second half.

You can wait for anything. Yes, Croatia is a strong opponent. The calculation attempts to compare the chances of a team not quite on our side. But football is not mathematics.

In Russia really are “fabulous” matches what we have been able to see for all this time. Even this out in the 1/4 finals has become for Russia a “fantastic” result. The whole country walked as if we have won the long war. However, perhaps a kind of “war” we had. The war of faith in our players and unbelief.

Now we sure do. Believe, hope, love like never before. And really looking forward to the continuation of this tale called “the world Cup in Russia.”

Read the story: Russia – Croatia: online broadcast of the quarterfinals of the world Cup 2018

The 2018 world Cup . Chronicle of events

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