As Rosstat has decided to reduce inaccuracy in estimates :: Economy :: RBC

Rosstat proposed to postpone the deadline for the submission of company reports on which are formed data on the dynamics of industrial indicators. This will help to overcome the “critical situation” with data adjustment, believe in the Department

Photo: Donat Sorokin / TASS

Term of granting of data on production, Russian companies sent to Rosstat, should be moved from the fourth to the tenth working day of the month. The proposal was made by Rosstat, follows from the review agencies (there RBC) in response to the column, chief Director for economic development, Institute for energy and Finance Marcel Salikhov.

“In view of the critical situation with the specification information of the Fund, Rosstat came out with the initiative to transfer to the Respondent of the deadline to provide data on production and shipment of production (works, services) from the fourth to the tenth working day”, — said in comments the statistical service.

The difference a thousand times

In June, Rosstat significantly revised data on the industry. For example, in April, the growth in annual terms amounted to 3.9% (instead of 1.3 percent) in March to 2.8% (down 1%). Result of 2017 was revised from 1% to 2.1%. Such sudden and massive changes have generated questions to Rosstat: in particular, economists of Alfa-Bank in the review indicated that the review “raises questions about the reliability of published data.” He Rosstat, explains the fact that production data are revised by the enterprises themselves, which are reporting (their preliminary estimates were pessimistic than the actual performance), and stressed that did not change the methodology.

Now companies do or do not have time to evaluate production time, or give incorrect, said Salikhov. “There are examples when people confuse things and thousands of pieces [of shipped goods], which led to revisions for this type of products in tens and hundreds of times”, — he said RBC.

The June revision was in accordance with the new regulations, Rosstat, according to which it is not once a year, as before, and on a quarterly basis, the commentary said service. However, a number of adjustments to data provided by the respondents, in recent years a growing — in “of unsustainable economic and business ties,” as well as a large number of legal entities with an extensive branch network in different territories, says Rosstat. So, due to the latter factor, the volume of shipped products will be assigned to the place of registration of the owner and the company, which, in fact, engaged in the production, will show in statistics in the region only offer for the extraction (or other production).

“Years of practice shows that in most cases the respondents are rather pessimistic than optimistic, and more quickly they are understated production data”, — stated in the document of Rosstat. The formation of the index of industrial production, explains the service uses preliminary data of respondents for the reporting month and the actual results for the previous month and the corresponding month last year. Data on the production indices are reviewed immediately, but only when further assessments.

Reporting differently

Soon companies will not have to submit reports to Rosstat. The government has already submitted to the state Duma a bill on the format of “one window” when reporting: to collect data is only the Federal tax service, Federal state statistics service, which the business sends the same reports will take information from FNS.

The deadline for filing will allow the state to have a “sustainable information resource that does not require monthly updates”, indicates Rosstat, as well as reduce the burden on business: he will not have to provide a preliminary assessment of the production, and then another, and Refine the data. Because of this, the timing of the publication by the office of operational information about the industry will increase (they are now published on the 11th working day), but “there is no alternative: or quality of the information, or the speed of its receipt,” said the service.

The current posting period got Rosstat “inherited” from a command planned economy, the letter said. Rosstat refers to the experience of the UK, where the production index is published on the 26th working day of the following month, Germany, France, Italy (in these countries the publication is 39-40 days) and Canada (60 days). Outside experts would be okay with the postponement of the publication of data on industry, said Salikhov: “there Should be a certain balance between accuracy and speed.”

Photo: Yegor Aleev / TASS

The measure to postpone reporting correct, it was discussed long and detailed, says head of the laboratory for research in inflation and growth, Higher school of Economics Vladimir Bessonov: better quality data should improve analytic support for decision-making in economic policy. “It is clear that until the tenth working day also not all specified, but it is hoped that it will be a more accurate assessment. After that, revisions will also be, but their extent will be less,” says Besson.

To solve the problem with the revisions, a monthly, not an annual or a quarterly adjustment, the Director of the analytical Department of “Loco-invest” Cyril Tremasov. Feed data should be in Excel, he says, now Rosstat publishes them in the format of press releases, and it’s “outdated approach”.

However, the problem of revision is wider, and it is connected not with the deadlines for reporting, and changes in the methodology, like the Besson. 2017 Rosstat switched to a technique ОКВЭД2 — in contrast to the last (NACE), it gives a different breakdown of industrial sectors. “Disturbed the comparability of the source data. This happened, in particular because the company was confused due to the new classification], they attributed their data to the wrong positions,” — said the expert. The transition to the new methodology occurred for comparability with Western approaches, but if something similar happens again, then again, this will lead to the loss of data comparability and, consequently, decrease their quality, warns Bessonov.

The revision will drive GDP

After reviewing data on industry GDP growth in the first quarter, which Rosstat had previously estimated 1.3% annually, will increase to 1.5%. This forecast is contained in the review of economic development “Picture economy” (*.pdf). According to the Ministry, the revision of the “ceteris paribus” will lead to an increase in the growth rate of GDP in 2017, 0.3 percentage points While Rosstat estimates growth last year of 1.5%. In 2018, according to the forecast the MAYOR, it will be 1.9%, and in 2019 is 1.4%. On a level above 3% GDP growth should come in 2021.

The issues of state secrets

Salikhov wrote about the secrecy of the key data in the databases of Rosstat (in particular, the production of non-ferrous metals and mining portion of mineral resources). But it is “not a whim of Rosstat and not a desire to hide anything from users or to confuse,” reads the letter service. Rosstat focuses on the law on state secrets, it shall comply with the appropriate mode, and its leader “authority to classify information does not possess”.

On the one hand, Rosstat really have to follow the law on state secrets, on the other — it can take the initiative to change the document, which was adopted in the mid-1990s, indicates Salikhov. The situation is contradictory: for example, detailed data on production of aluminium formally classified, but the same UC Rusal IFRS disclose this figure, and for that, no one is judged, he said.

Even among Russian authorities, there are contradictions regarding the availability of data in a single Agency they can be as open and another as top secret, says Bessonov. But to objects of state secrets includes not only non-ferrous metals, and even weapons and military equipment, like an expert, and these positions are in any case will remain closed. “Much more transparent” Rosstat data can be done if clear paint techniques service, he adds, — now the experts they have “to translate from Russian on Russian”.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *