Russia’s population may start to decrease for the first time since 2009, warned experts of the Ranepa. Net migration continues to decline and can not compensate for the growing natural decline
Photo: Vladimir Smirnov / TASS
Russia’s population may begin to decline in 2018 due to the fall of migration increase, it follows from the July monitoring of the economic situation of the Ranepa and the Gaidar Institute (*.pdf).
Natural population decline in January—may 2018 amounted to 147.2 thousand persons, it has accelerated in comparison with the same period last year (111,8 thousand), follows from the data of Rosstat. The main reason is the decline in the number of births due to the accession of childbearing age a few generations of women born in the 1990-ies. Thus, the number of births in January—may 2018 declined 28.1% compared to the same period last year.
To compensate for the natural decrease of the population may migrate, but according to the January—April migration growth falls. For the first four months of this year amounted to 57.1 thousand people, which is less than in the same period last year (64,9 million) and 2016 (71.2 thousand).
Rosstat considers under coming from other countries migrants coming for permanent residence or to stay for a period of 9 months or more. Under the retired are references to the person who went to other countries for permanent residence or for a long stay, including migrants whose period of stay in Russia according to the documents ended (not all of them are in reality leave). The difference between the number of arrivals and number of departures is a growth in migration.
Migration gain in January through April 2018 compensated only 47.1% of the natural population decline. “If trends in migration and natural movement will not change this year — for the first time since 2009 Russia’s population could start to fall” — warns a leading researcher, laboratory of studies of demography and migration Ranepa Nikita Mkrtchyan and Yulia Florinskaya.
If international migration will continue to decline, the natural decline to rise, the population of the country can really start to decline this year, agreed with the conclusions of experts, the Director of the Institute of demography HSE Anatoly Vishnevsky. “The growth of immigration is the main demographic resource, which can grow or at least remain unchanged, the population of Russia, in the conditions of natural decline,” said RBC Wisniewski.
According to the baseline variant of the demographic forecast of Rosstata (*.xls), reduction of the population of Russia may begin in 2020, whereas in the year 2018, the expected General growth of the population of 116 thousand people, and in 2019 — only 21.7 thousand
The reduction for Ukraine
The main reason for the slow migration growth — the reduction in the number of migrants from Ukraine with a weak recovery of migration from Central Asian countries, the report said. For the first four months of 2018, the population of Russia increased at the expense of the migrants from Ukraine by 7.4 thousand people, whereas in January—April 2017 from Ukraine arrived 27.3 thousand persons, and in the same period of 2016 — 35,3 thousand most Likely, this is due to the “conservation of the situation in the East of Ukraine and the termination of mass forced migration in Russia,” demographers say the Ranepa.
New main migration donor to Russia was Tajikistan (+12,1 thousand in January—April), ahead of not only Ukraine, but also Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The migration gains of foreign countries is small — 2.2 million people in January—April this year. It provide India, Georgia, Turkey, Vietnam and Afghanistan, at the same time, there is a decline in migration to the Western countries, including Germany, USA, Canada (going there in larger quantities than come to Russia). Observed decline and the DPRK, was recorded by demographers.
The growth potential of temporary migration from the countries — members of the Union have been exhausted, as confirmed by the interior Ministry for 2018. The number of foreign citizens from CIS countries who are temporarily staying in Russia declined at the beginning of June 2018 to 8.56 million, up from 8.29 million a year earlier. The only exception is Kyrgyzstan, increased migration which is ongoing; the number in Russia its citizens, the country came in 4th place after Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Tajikistan.