Danske Bank has called the most vulnerable to trade wars, currency :: Finance :: RBC

The aggravation of the trade war between the US and China have the most negative impact on the Swiss franc and the currencies of the Scandinavian countries, analysts said Danske Bank. Among the most stable of currencies called the dollar, the yen, the pound and the Euro

Photo: Mohamed Abd El Ghany / Reuters

In the case of aggravation of the trade war between the United States and China are at the most risk exposed to the Swiss franc and currencies of the Scandinavian countries. To this conclusion, as reported by Bloomberg, came analysts Danske Bank, the largest commercial Bank in Denmark.

“The Australian economy vulnerable when the escalation of a trade war mainly because they are the currencies of small, open economies. In the case of Denmark the stability of the currency depends on the state of the global shipping industry,” said analyst Jens Pedersen. In his view, the Swiss franc also under high risk as the currency of a small open economy, and due to the long korrelyatsii with the state of Affairs in China.

Among the currencies of emerging markets “particularly vulnerable” looks Hungarian Forint in connection with its higher sensitivity to metals prices, the report said.

At the same time, the Euro and the British pound may show greater resilience to the exacerbation of trade wars because of the size of the economies and their lower openness. Most reliable in this case are the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, in particular due to the low correlation with the price of metals, I believe in Danske Bank.

JP Morgan analysts gave tips on buying currency in case of crisis

Finance

Earlier in July, JP Morgan analysts called the Swiss franc among the most preferred in the case of a currency crisis. In their opinion, upon the occurrence of another crisis in the first place to get rid of the currencies of developing countries, and is available in Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Singaporean and us dollars. The Japanese currency is named the most attractive means of hedging.

The scenario of global crisis in the Bank called are out of date at the present time, however, analyzed the options in case of its occurrence.

Bank of America Corp. July 3 warned that in the global stock market could have a repeat of the global crisis of 1997-1998. “Steady growth in the U.S., smoothing the yield curve of bonds, shrinking the markets of developing countries like the echo of the events of 20 years ago”, — said a leading investment Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett.

After the announcement of the introduction of duties on import of steel and aluminum, the US also imposed a duty of 25%, the number of Chinese goods worth $50 billion, and later announced plans to impose 10% duty on an extensive group of products from China for another $200 billion. Beijing has already filed two complaints to the world trade organization.

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