Debt overload: as the Central Bank curbs credit appetites of Russians :: Finance :: RBC

Zakreditovannym citizens will be more likely to refuse to issue new loans or to offer higher rates — the bankers managed to convince the Central Bank to postpone the calculation of the maximum debt burden of individuals, but only until October 2019

Photo: Oleg Karsaev / “Kommersant”

The Bank of Russia was postponed at the request of the banks a mandatory beginning of calculation of the maximum debt load (PD) individuals for the issuance of loans for the nine months — from January 1 to October 1, 2019, from the new version of the draft guidance “About the types of assets and performance assets that are set allowances for the risk factors”.

Using the value of PD, the Central Bank will be increasing the risk ratios for consumer loans. The size of the allowances will depend on the amount of reserves that will need to create a Bank for each issued loan. Central Bank can set allowances on the other indicators. In particular, last week the regulator has notified the banks to increase risk weights on consumer credits with interest rates above 10% due to the rapid growth of unsecured lending risk and increase the debt load of the population.

The indicator of debt burden (in international practice — PTI payment to income) — the ratio of monthly loan payments to monthly income of the borrower. According to the method of the Central Bank’s PD will be calculated as the ratio of monthly payments to the borrower for all outstanding loans and on newly issued credit to the average monthly income for 12 months. PD will have to count all credit and microfinance institutions on all types of loans.

In the list of documents that can be used to determine the average monthly income of the borrower, are now included ten kinds of certificates, including 2-NDFL, inquiries about salary from place of work the form of the Bank, information on pension payments, proof of income of an individual entrepreneur, etc.

The introduction of PD in the next year and a half means that borrowers with a high debt load are increasingly faced with failures in obtaining and refinancing a loan or the rates will be significantly higher to offset the growing cost of capital for banks, said the expert group Finance ACRES Mikhail Doronkin.

“PD to the greatest extent will affect borrowers with high debt load — I agree the lead analyst on Bank ratings “Expert RA” Catherine Shurigina. — As well as those who are planning to take larger loans, which will significantly increase their debt load, such as a mortgage.” “The growth of consumer credit may slow down by limiting access to it indebted citizens”, — said the expert, noting that the degree of influence of PD will depend on the specific set by the Central Bank of the boundaries of the indicator and of the risk factors.

Individual banks and borrowers themselves can go to various tricks to circumvent the requirements of the regulator: to break the loan into small tranches (up to 10 thousand RUB.) with different terms of issue and repayment, warns Doronkin. But, in his opinion, “the scale of such operations will not be significant, as the Central Bank will be able to quickly close such holes in regulation”.

Suggestions and comments

The concept of the indicator of debt burden, the Central Bank established in October 2017, and the first version of a normative act for discussion published in April. Reviews for the new version of the instructions of the Central Bank will collect up to 25 July. To the previous option, the banks contributed 42 comments and suggestions, some of which the regulator took into account.

According to the Association of Russian banks, to implement the calculation of the PD banks need from five months to a year and a half since the adoption of a regulation. The Central Bank has responded to this suggestion and postponed the start date of required calculation.

The proposal to raise the minimum amount of the loan, which is not necessary to calculate the PD from 10 thousand to 100 thousand rubles, the regulator has rejected. As stated in comments and suggestions on the draft guidelines of the Bank of Russia, increased minimum threshold of credits for which it is not necessary to calculate the PD, up to 100 thousand rubles can lead to unlimited loans and growth of debt load of citizens, and at the minimum threshold of 10 thousand RUB this risk is small, since the loans in such amount “not typical for banks.” According to the NBCH (National Bureau of credit histories) for 2017, the average size of consumer loan amounted to 141,2 thousand roubles, and banks rarely offer unsecured General-purpose consumer loans of less than 30-50 thousand rubles (aggregated data for loan product “cash loan”).

To completely eliminate the minimum loan amount for which can not count on PD, the regulator considered it inappropriate, as if the threshold remains the availability of a population of “payday loans” up to 10 thousand RUB.

Market participants also proposed not to calculate the PD on the POS credits (from the English. point of sale loans granted in points of sale for the purchase of goods) loans issued for a period less than a year; when raising the limits on previously issued credit card; and increase the minimum thresholds for calculation of PD for loans to avoid negative consequences for the loan market “as one of the most sustainable segments of the credit market”.

But the regulator has rejected these suggestions, stating that personal data must be calculated for all types of loans. According to the survey the largest banks at the beginning of 2018, the share of POS-loans in arrears over 90 days accounted for 9.8% of the portfolio of loans is 10.5%, cash loans — 10.6% and credit cards is 15.6 percent. Thus, the level of arrears in almost all loan segments is about 10% (with the exception of credit cards, 15%), says the review of the regulator. Banks will be able to calculate the PD of the borrower based on stated income, not to limit the normal development of the individual segments, such as POS loans, where the size of loans amount to an average of 30 thousand rubles.

Simultaneously, the Central Bank went against the banks and have left behind them the right to expect of PD on loans that the Bank received the transfer of rights requirements.

Unresolved issues

While the Bank of Russia has not set any level PDN, which is banned to exceed. In some countries this figure is used in this way. A survey from the Bank of Russia, in Lithuania the restriction on the maximum value of the rate of leverage is set at 40% (in some cases, the rate may be increased to 60%) and in Canada it is at 42% (for mortgage loans). In Israel, the Bank may not approve housing loan, which is an indicator of the debt burden will exceed 50%.

It is assumed that the Central Bank will set the limit value as to gather information on the average values of PD on credit institutions, thinks Mikhail Doronkin. A lot will depend on whether there will be banks and borrowers space, that is, whether they, for example, when calculating PD to take into account the borrower’s income, not documented (informal wages, income from rental property), adds Catherine Shurigina of “Expert RA”. “Still have to decide how banks will obtain and aggregate data on the current credits of the potential borrower. Discussed options for aggregation at the level of the BCI, and on the level of lending organizations,” she said.

In any case, the introduction of PD calculation means for banks potential capital pressures in the case of a loan to borrowers with high PD and also the growth of spending for the calculation of the index, highlights Shurigina.

“The main pitfall is reliable information about the level of income, which now has a salary Bank, the FIU and the FTS, and then only in the case that the borrower receives entire salary vbeluyu”, — said the head of the risk analysis of the Bank “home Credit” Murat Enikeev. Well-functioning infrastructure, which could be used by all banks to obtain information about the income of borrowers, not today, he concludes.

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