Sergei Sobyanin wins Moscow mayoral elections with 69.4% of the votes, his opponent, Communist Vadim Cumin will receive 13.2 per cent, and the remaining opponents — less than 8%. This forecast results of the upcoming week of elections of the head of the capital gave VTSIOM
Photo: Mikhail Tereshchenko / TASS
A change of leader in the fight for second place
All-Russia centre of studying of public opinion (VTSIOM) presented the results of the poll “Electoral preferences of Muscovites” (there RBC) forecast the results of elections of the mayor of the capital, which will be held on September 9.
VTSIOM projected turnout of 31.8%, which corresponds to the evaluation from the beginning of August. In comments to the study sociologists say that the election campaign in the capital has become more visible: only a third of those who does not exclude the possibility to come to the polls (33%) say that I did not see campaigning for candidates.
Predictable favorite remains the acting mayor Sergei Sobyanin — its predictive score increased from 65.5 to 69.4%. This is followed by the candidate from the Communist party Vadim Kumin, whose figure increased from 10.1 to 13.2%. At the same time, the predicted results fall their opponents — Mikhail Degtyarev from the liberal democratic party from 11.1 to 7.8%, spravoross Ilya Sviridov — from 7.1 to 6.5%, Michael Balakina (“Union citizens”) is from 4.3 to 1.4%.
The initiative opinion poll was conducted from August 28 to 30 among 1800 adult Muscovites by telephone interviews a random sample of landline and mobile numbers. The sample size of 1800 respondents. The maximum size of the error with 95% probability does not exceed 2.5%.
According to a survey, 28-30 August, 62% of Muscovites, as in the beginning of August, in varying degrees, expressed a desire to vote.
Among those who “definitely intends” to take part in the elections, VTSIOM said the high percentage of undecided (16%) with the selection. Of undecided 68% expressed a desire to vote for Sobyanin, 7% for Cumin, 3% or less for other candidates.
Moscow candidates: who goes on elections of the mayor of the capital
The weather factor
VTSIOM Director General Valery Fyodorov called last week before the elections a crucial stage in the campaign, when voters decide to vote. In his opinion, the situation in the first week of September may differ significantly from the situation of August, because after the holidays in the city returned a significant portion of voters who are not faced with the election campaign and did not appear in surveys. Fedorov also pointed to the influence of the “country factor” in the outcome of the election — because of the good weather, many Muscovites instead of elections will hold a weekend in nature.
“So the present calculation is more of a benchmark, the achievement of which is still a lot of work to participants of the elections,” Fedorov summed up.
RBC sent a request to the press Secretary of mayor Gulnara Hemp to comment on these polls.
Press Secretary of the candidate from the Communist party Anastasia Udaltsova told RBC that the polls were in their surveys underestimates the data candidates from the opposition. She recalled that three weeks before the election of the mayor of Moscow in 2013 VTSIOM gave this forecast: Sobyanin — 67-68%, Bulk — 13-15%, Melnikov — 6%. Actual results differed significantly: Sobyanin — 51%, Bulk — 27%, Melnikov — almost 11%.
“Given the fact that this election is not the liberals from the Bulk and from the “Apple” and protest potential after the announcement of cannibalistic [pension] reform has only increased, we do not exclude the high probability of the second round in these elections, where will meet the mayor and Vadim Cumin,” — said Udaltsov.
Spravoross Ilya Sviridov in a conversation with RBC, called the poll “forming”, which represents an attempt to influence the real outcome of the election.
“Sociologists trying to make the tracing of the mayoral election with the presidential campaign, too lazy to conduct deep research, — told RBC, the candidate from LDPR Mikhail Degtyarev. — Closed surveys, the candidate of the Communist party far behind us, so I threw a flurry of activity on pension reform, not connected with the Moscow agenda.”
Elections of the mayor of Moscow will take place on 9 September. Municipal filter to participate in the campaign, failed to go to several candidates, including opposition to Dmitry Gudkov and Ilya Yashin.
According to the source RBC, the Moscow authorities have chosen the reference point of the election campaign of Sergey Sobyanin in preparation for the September election of the mayor based on the recommendations contained in the special research centre. Among them, the attempt to make one candidate more lively, “human” image.
The battle for turnout
To increase the turnout in the elections of the Moscow city Duma adopted amendments to the electoral code of the capital: the polls will be open until 22:00 and opens in suburban complexes outside Moscow.
The real turnout could be below the forecast VTSIOM, said RBC analyst Abbas Gallyamov. In his opinion, “the existing set of candidates — the favourites and a few spoilers — does not meet public opposition, and it’s on elections, most likely, will not come.” Against appearance plays also the fact that the loyalists can stay home because no doubt the victory Sobyanin, and understanding of the voters that the elections of the mayor are much less dramatic than the presidential election.
“However, the festive atmosphere at stations can increase turnout by a few percent — it all depends on how bright everything will be organized”, — concluded Gallyamov.