According to the updated forecast of the Ministry of economic development, in 2018 Russia will receive $41 billion, not $18 billion as previously expected
Photo: Ramil Sitdikov / RIA Novosti
The tightening of monetary policy by the Federal reserve and the strengthening of foreign trade restrictions have a negative impact on the propensity of investors to invest in emerging economies, which has led to increased outflow of capital from these countries, the report says the economic development Ministry in August 2018.
The Department explained that the additional pressure on the Russian rouble had a “full-blown economic and financial crisis in Turkey”, as well as the announcement of the US authorities on the possible introduction of a new package of anti-Russian sanctions.
“In these circumstances, the Ministry of economic development revised its forecast of the ruble against the U.S. dollar for the period until the end of 2018 first half of 2019 in the direction of weakening. At the same time we raised the forecast on outflow of capital (financial account balance) for the current year to $41 billion from $18 billion expected earlier,” the report says.
According to the Central Bank, in January—July 2018 net capital outflow of Russian private sector rose to $21.5 billion versus $8.7 billion in the first seven months of 2017. In 2017, the net capital outflow from Russia, according to the Central Bank, amounted to $27.3 billion, which is almost one and a half times higher than that in 2016 ($18.5 billion).
The Ministry stressed that accelerating capital outflows and, in particular, the exit of non-residents of the Russian government securities increased significantly the yield of Federal loan bonds (OFZ). So, in early September, the ten-year zero-coupon OFZ yields reached 8.8%, which, according to the Ministry, the highest value over the last year.
According to the updated forecast, by 2018 the average cost of the dollar will 61,7 rubles, whereas previously it was thought that the average rate of the dollar is only 60,8 RUB.
At the same time in the MAYOR believe that in the medium to long term, the conditions of functioning of the Russian economy will remain the same, and therefore the forecast of the ruble for the years 2020-2024, the Agency did not change.
“It is expected that the exchange rate of the ruble to the U.S. dollar will return to the levels of 63-64 rubles per dollar in the second half of 2019 and will continue to weaken the pace close to the inflation differential between Russia and the countries — trade partners”, — the report says the Ministry of economic development.
In 2024, the average rate of the American currency, according to the forecast, will amount to 68 rubles per dollar.