The head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin said that he sees no reason for the fall of the ruble, despite the current volatility and the change in the forecast of capital outflow from Russia, and told a joke about Brezhnev
(Photo: Mikhail Metzel / TASS)
The Ministry of economic development does not consider a realistic scenario of a serious weakening of the ruble. This statement was made by the head of Department Maxim Oreshkin in a Moscow financial forum, the correspondent of RBC.
“We don’t see any long term reason to has been a serious weakening of the ruble and drastic structural shift. Yes, there is current volatility. Not to say that the ruble is one of the weakest currencies,” — said the Minister, answering a question about the weakening of the ruble to the level of 80 rubles per dollar.
“You know, like that joke, when Brezhnev runs the cross, and talking about the fact that his opponent came second from the end (they both run), and Brezhnev took the prize. Similarly here, in terms of the ruble [say] — the fifth since the end of the six currencies [developing countries],” — continued the Minister.
Economists predicted a strengthening of the dollar to 82 RUB.
As an example, the currencies that are much weaker ruble. led the Turkish Lira, Argentine peso, South African Rand, Brazilian real and Indian rupee. “The situation there is much worse, and there is the problem structural in nature. In Russia, it is clear that there are sanctions in history, which adds nervousness to investors is volatility, [which] is absolutely a short-term nature,” — said Oreshkin.
The Ministry also noted that long-term evaluation of the exchange rate for the period after 2020 remain the same, despite the fact that the Agency has revised its forecast for the outflow of capital from Russia in the next 12 months. “Because the long-term course is based on two things — budget rule that ensures stability regardless of the level of oil prices, and the inflation targeting, which ensure long-term sustainability of inflation at a low level,” — said the Minister.
The economic development Ministry increased its forecast capital outflows of $23 billion
The day before, on September 5, the Ministry of economic development has slightly increased the average dollar exchange rate for 2018 from 60.8 to 61.7 RUB on the background of toughening of monetary-credit policy of the fed, the withdrawal of investors from emerging markets, strengthening trade restrictions and prospects of new us sanctions. Forecast to 2019 — RUB and 63.9 (63.2 per RUB).
At the same time, the Agency sharply raised its forecast for capital outflow for the year 2018 from $18 billion to $41 billion Forecast for economic growth for 2018 and 2019 was reduced by 0.1 percentage points, to 1.8 and 1.3%, respectively.