Three components of economic growth — structural, conjunctural and foreign trade in Russia in the fore market, found out the experts of the Gaidar Institute. It’s a risk, as the climate is changeable
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The growth of the Russian economy in the coming years will be determined not by structural factors — the quality of the economy, and opportunistic, such as the phases of the business cycle and random shocks. This was in an article for the new issue of the journal “Questions of Economics” (the article is at the RBC) is written by the research Director of Gaidar Institute Sergey Drobyshevsky, economists at the Gaidar Institute and Ranepa Georgy Idrisov, Andrew Koukin and Pavel Pavlov, as well as the rector of the Russian Academy of foreign trade Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev.
The authors conducted a so-called decomposition of the growth rate, expanding it into its three components — the structural (reflecting long-term sustainable growth rate), foreign trade and market. As it follows from their calculations, the Russian economy is now moving forward that is opportunistic reasons, and foreign trade gives a negative contribution.
Less sustainable growth
From the analysis of the Gaidar Institute, that structural economic growth is slowing steadily since 1999. If then the contribution of the structural components was 5.6 percentage points by 2009 it has dropped to 3.6 percentage points by 2015 — to 1.5%, and by 2017 — up to 0.9 percentage points By 2020, if you focus on the basic official forecast of Ministry of economic development, structural growth is almost nonexistent, amounting to a symbolic 0.3 p. p.
Structural growth is composed of labor, capital, and total factor productivity (TFP) — he “represents the trajectory of the maximum production of goods and services, which can stably be maintained in the long term,” says work. Reflects TFP including technological progress, infrastructure development and quality of market and regulatory institutions. But their contribution to the overall growth of the economy is reduced, is evident from the data of the Gaidar Institute.
Analysts of the Central Bank had previously indicated that after 2008, the growth of TFP in Russia occurred “at the expense of a small group of leading enterprises, mainly large”, and the level of productivity in a large part of companies 10-20 times lower than that of the leaders. Inefficient enterprises “are reduced in size, but contrary to the logic of “creative destruction” of the market do not go or do not go through restructuring,” explained the experts of the Central Bank.
The slowdown in TFP is due, in particular, deterioration in the business climate, namely, “the increase in the share of government in the economy, increased state intervention in, lack of progress in institutional reforms,” they write in their work, economists at the Gaidar Institute.
An unhealthy situation
“The situation is definitely unhealthy. Conjunctural factors — factors that do not depend on the policy of the government, the special actions and can be easily changed. It is the mood of economic agents, the level of certainty, the positive and negative external shocks”, — said the Drobyshevsky RBC.
Cyclical component takes into account business cycle and random shocks, however, have to consider them together: methods to assess each of these factors individually, no, said the Drobyshevsky. If in 2009-m and in the 2011-2016 years market conditions have made negative contribution to growth in 2017 and provided an increase of 1.6 percentage points (the overall economy last year grew by 1.5%, but the negative contribution of foreign trade gave to the component). And in the next three years this trend will continue — the market will be to make the 2.6–3.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the baseline forecast of economic development. The total growth rate will be below 2.1-2.3% from negative foreign trade effects associated with the fact that oil prices “will remain at the level lower than a multiyear average”.
In 2013-2016 the negative contribution of the market was associated with the sanctions, counter-sanctions, devaluation of the ruble, partly military operation in Syria (began in September of 2015), written by experts. Now the trend is changing against the background of “increase the horizon investment planning in a context of low inflation” — the business cycle goes into a positive region, the authors write.
The acceleration due to accidents
If you focus on the target variant of the forecast the MAYOR, which provides for the acceleration of the economy, market factors in the next two years will play an even greater role, and it is at their expense to achieve the desired acceleration. “This all makes the situation and the forecast is less confident and increases the probability of a negative scenario,” adds the Drobyshevsky.
Experts in their work note that with the emergence of new statistics, estimates will be updated. While it is likely that the role of structural components in the past three years likely underestimated, and opportunistic, on the contrary, overestimated.
Internal drivers of the economy in fact has exhausted itself, agrees chief economist BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov. The effect of situational factors to predict difficult. It depends, in part, from the success of the implementation of national projects established in the new the may presidential decree, which is estimated at 8 trillion additional spending over six years. Sources of funding are now trying to find out the budget, says Tikhomirov, citing a recent plan, presidential aide Andrei Belousov. But they may not be enough, adds Tikhomirov: “For the economy it can have a small effect, and we can stay with the pace of growth, which have now”.
In the conservative scenario “with high probability, can occur a structural slowdown of the Russian economy”, in which the contribution of structural components to be negative, written by experts of the Gaidar Institute.
“If at the same time remain unfavorable foreign trade situation, making a negative contribution to growth, the only source of growth is the component of the business cycle. Taking into account the likely imposition of new sanctions, which could have a negative impact on the business environment in Russia, a transition from low growth to stagnation or a recession,” they warn.