According to the forecast, the next crisis could erupt in the near future. Earlier, JPMorgan Chase analyst Marco Kolanovic warned that a new crisis may lead to social unrest, as have not been since 1968
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A new financial crisis could erupt as early as 2020, Bloomberg warns, citing research analysts financial holding company JPMorgan Chase, released on the tenth anniversary of the 2008 crisis. However, according to the authors of the forecast, the good news is that the consequences of a new crisis will be less painful.
Analysts John Normand and Federico Manicardi remind you that during the global crisis of 2007-2008, the stock index S&P 500 was down 54% from peak values. During the crisis following the collapse of the stock markets, according to analysts, is not so large, and because the value of assets in developing countries have dropped significantly.
Analysts have identified the countries with the highest risk of currency crises.
Normand and Manicardi emphasize that the duration of the crisis is impossible to predict as it will depend on how bad things go.
In early September, Marco Kolanovic, who oversees JPMorgan Chase global quantitative research macro-economic indicators and derivatives, warned that the next financial crisis can be very serious because of the risk of a Great “liquidity crisis”. Kolanovic fears that because of the dominance of passively managed funds in the event of a serious fall of market quotations, will not be enough buyers at the cheaper assets, and it will again and again to push prices down.
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The expert noted that the probability of a new crisis before the end of 2019 is low, however, trade conflicts, the U.S. and China can accelerate or delay its onset.
Kalanovic expressed the hope that Central banks will be able to prevent the development of events in the worst case scenario, not allowing a sharp fall in the value of assets. Otherwise, the case, according to experts, may result in the slide of the world economy into depression and social unrest, which the world has not seen since 1968.