The crisis has deprived the Russian economy of 43 trillion of value added. So she received less because of the collapse in labour productivity, estimated by experts of the Institute of Economics of growth to them. Stolypin
Photo: Dmitry Efremov / TASS
The drop in productivity over the past three years has led to the fact that the economy suffered a shortfall of 43 trillion of added value, appreciated by the experts of the Institute of Economics of the growth of the business Ombudsman Boris Titov (RBC got acquainted with their research).
In 2017, according to experts, the development of added value per workplace decreased by 41% compared to 2014 levels. 43 trillion — the amount of value added, which fell short of the economy, in current prices, the authors note. This is almost half the annual GDP of the country (92 trillion in 2017).
Official statistics is less dramatic: according to Rosstat, productivity has been decreasing in 2015 and 2016 only 1.9% and 0.3% respectively (data for 2017 yet). The Ministry of economic development believes that by the end of last year, productivity grew 2% in 2018-2019, its growth rate will slow, and by 2020 reaches about 3%. However, these estimates of productivity acts only as an abstract calculated index (the ratio of GDP dynamics to the change in aggregate labour input).
In the may decrees 2012, President Vladimir Putin instructed to increase productivity by 50% by 2018 and to increase the number of high-performance workplaces (ITRM) to 25 million by 2020. But this part of the decrees of the authorities are not complied with. By the end of 2016, as he wrote RBC, labour productivity (counted cumulatively) in comparison with 2011 increased by 4%. In 2018, if based on the forecast of economic development, it will be 7.6% higher than in 2012.
The number of productive jobs is also not closer to 25 million by the First Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov explained that this happened due to the lack of clear goal setting. Before the advent of the may decrees Rosstat did not consider the number ITRM, and the necessary technique had been developed only in 2013. But based on not skilled employees and the quality of their products or services, although Putin asked that it was a “highly modern” position, and the average salary in the company.
The Institute’s growth, in turn, evaluates performance on the basis of data on businesses, hoping the volume of production of added value per workplace. It is considered as the sum of the worker’s pay, including insurance premiums, and gross profit per employee.
From these calculations it follows that in the pre-crisis years labour productivity in Russia is steadily growing. From 2011 to 2014 generation of added value per job has doubled, reaching 2.2 million rubles. “But in 2015, the outbreak of the crisis was followed by her collapse to the level of 1.7 million rubles”, — noted in the study.
The decline continued, and by 2017 this figure had fallen to 41%, or 0.9 mln, compared with pre-crisis 2014. Such a sharp drop due to increased production costs of enterprises, the high cost and lack of access to credit, growing fiscal, tariff and regulatory burden that has significantly reduced profit and profitability of enterprises, told RBC Director of the Institute of Stolypin and Vice-President of “Business Russia” Anastasiya Alekhnovich.
The role of the Institute Titova
Institute of Economics growth them. Stolypin was established on the basis of the Stolypin club — expert platform, one of the founders of which were Commissioner for the rights of entrepreneurs under President Boris Titov. Titov and his Institute was preparing a “Strategy for growth”, the economic program was developed as an alternative strategy Alexei Kudrin, who now heads the Accounts chamber. A year before the election of the President Titov (status of Ombudsman) and Kudrin (the head of the Center for strategic research) presented their proposals to Putin. However, Titov was severely criticized by many economists: they pointed out that the proposed business Ombudsman “target emission” in a few trillion rubles, designed to stimulate lending to the real sector, acceleration of inflation. In new may Putin’s decree ultimately entered a series of developments of the CSR (experts Kudrin suggested focus on the development of education, health and infrastructure).
Institute of Stolypin’s not the first time a third-party conducts an assessment of the situation performance. Its experts have counted the number of high-performance workplaces jointly with the onf.
Efficiency at the expense of oil
The most effective branch of the Russian economy remains mining, the authors of the report. On the second place on efficiency turned out to be fishing on the third trade.
Best dynamic performance, according to the Institute of growth, in 2017 showed the agriculture, fishing and mining. In trade, on the contrary, labor productivity has declined significantly in 2017 due to low demand, experts say. The reasons were the low investment activity and effective demand, experts believe. In addition, performance declined significantly in Finance and construction.
To improve the efficiency of industries has allowed favorable credit terms and tax breaks, said the multiplex. “Metallurgy, chemicals, agriculture was given carte Blanche. Huge funds were provided in the form of affordable loans at low interest rates, which allowed us to upgrade equipment at the enterprises”, — she specified. However, the majority of other industries, she said, cut off from such support measures.
“The entrepreneur always wants to earn more for greater productivity, but the tax, budgetary and monetary policy do not create conditions,” — said the multiplex.
The increase in labor productivity in 2018 once again became a priority for the authorities. New may Putin’s decree aims at growth “for medium and large enterprises of the basic non-oil sectors of the economy below 5% a year.” To achieve it needs to be in 2024. While open access data for this indicator, there is development of a methodology, previously reported by the RBC press service of the Ministry of economic development.
The minimum productivity is maintained in the public administration, education, housing, social services and health care. However, productivity may not be a key performance indicator in these sectors, said the multiplex. “We need to assess the level of services to the population. But the methodology for assessing the satisfaction of citizens quality government services and social services does not exist”, — said the expert.